In the US, Democracy Is OK, Trade Is a KO
The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled a large portion of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump are illegal. The decision shows that Uncle Sam’s institutional barriers are holding up. But those who celebrate will be disappointed.
The trade barrier that Donald Trump built has come tumbling down. Six of the nine Supreme Court justices, including two Trump appointees, have held that the president could not use base his famous global tariffs on an economic emergency and would therefore have to seek congressional approval, a process he viewed as too time consuming.
The decision goes well beyond international trade, as it has carries eminently political consequences. The rebuff shows that checks and balances continue to function in the face of Trump’s onslaughts— here deemed illegal. This setback has precedent in the House of Representatives. Last week, part of his own political base voted with the Democrats to rescind the tariffs imposed on Canada. The vote carries little weight, as the president will veto it as soon as can.
But such a rebellion demonstrates the extreme political fragility of the presidential bazooka. A recent survey shows that 60% of Americans disapprove of the tariffs, and more than half believe they have driven up the cost of living.
It’s a sentiment that’s reflected in the figures. According to the Federal Reserve, Americans themselves and their businesses have absorbed more than 90% of the tariffs. Meanwhile, in 2025, the U.S. trade deficit — the main reason for Trump’s tariff wall — actually increased slightly from the previous year.
Denounce the EU Agreement?
Should we celebrate the Supreme Court decision?? Certainly not. It once again ushers in months of uncertainty, damaging to the global economy.
First, because it paves the way for potentially massive refunds to importers who have been paying the tariffs, amounting to tens of billions of dollars. What’s more, the Supreme Court could not agree on the procedure itself, which is likely to be “messy,” as one of the three dissenting Republican judges warned. Thousands of businesses are already poised to take action.
For their part, certain members of the European Parliament intend to denounce the agreement signed with the European Union, on which the Supreme Court has not ruled, but which is suddenly shrouded in legal uncertainty. The agreement has been put on hold at the European Parliament in the wake of Trump’s assault on Greenland. As humiliating and unfavorable as it was, it did, nonetheless, have the advantage of stabilizing trans-Atlantic trade. Wouldn’t calling it into question be tantamount to opening Pandora’s box, given a politically wounded Trump prepared to strike even harder?
The White House team has already devised a response and is prepared to use other legal resources to achieve its objectives. Whereas the economic emergency invoked by the U.S. president allowed him to sign broad-based trading agreements, the new tools will more precisely target specific sectors such as pharmaceuticals and chemicals, two major players in Belgium.
The American rule of law has shown that, even when shaken in unprecedented ways, it can withstand Trump’s excesses. But, just as the trade war seemed to be finally entering full swing, the Supreme Court may have just put another cog into to the president’s infernal machine.
The trade barrier that Donald Trump built has come tumbling down. Six of the nine Supreme Court justices, including two Trump appointees, have held that the president could not use base his famous global tariffs on an economic emergency and would therefore have to seek congressional approval, a process he viewed as too time consuming.
The decision goes well beyond international trade, as it has carries eminently political consequences. The rebuff shows that checks and balances continue to function in the face of Trump’s onslaughts— here deemed illegal. This setback has precedent in the House of Representatives. Last week, part of his own political base voted with the Democrats to rescind the tariffs imposed on Canada. The vote carries little weight, as the president will veto it as soon as can.
But such a rebellion demonstrates the extreme political fragility of the presidential bazooka. A recent survey shows that 60% of Americans disapprove of the tariffs, and more than half believe they have driven up the cost of living.
It’s a sentiment that’s reflected in the figures. According to the Federal Reserve, Americans themselves and their businesses have absorbed more than 90% of the tariffs. Meanwhile, in 2025, the U.S. trade deficit — the main reason for Trump’s tariff wall — actually increased slightly from the previous year.
Denounce the EU Agreement?
Should we celebrate the Supreme Court decision?? Certainly not. It once again ushers in months of uncertainty, damaging to the global economy.
First, because it paves the way for potentially massive refunds to importers who have been paying the tariffs, amounting to tens of billions of dollars. What’s more, the Supreme Court could not agree on the procedure itself, which is likely to be “messy,” as one of the three dissenting Republican judges warned. Thousands of businesses are already poised to take action.
For their part, certain members of the European Parliament intend to denounce the agreement signed with the European Union, on which the Supreme Court has not ruled, but which is suddenly shrouded in legal uncertainty. The agreement has been put on hold at the European Parliament in the wake of Trump’s assault on Greenland. As humiliating and unfavorable as it was, it did, nonetheless, have the advantage of stabilizing trans-Atlantic trade. Wouldn’t calling it into question be tantamount to opening Pandora’s box, given a politically wounded Trump prepared to strike even harder?
The White House team has already devised a response and is prepared to use other legal resources to achieve its objectives. Whereas the economic emergency invoked by the U.S. president allowed him to sign broad-based trading agreements, the new tools will more precisely target specific sectors such as pharmaceuticals and chemicals, two major players in Belgium.
The American rule of law has shown that, even when shaken in unprecedented ways, it can withstand Trump’s excesses. But, just as the trade war seemed to be finally entering full swing, the Supreme Court may have just put another cog into to the president’s infernal machine.
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