The Hidden Agenda Behind Obama’s Demands Toward China

Published in Xinhua
(China) on 15 March 2009
by Yi Fei (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Mark Frank. Edited by Laura Berlinsky-Schine.
According to a report published by the United States Department of Commerce on March 11, the U.S. trade deficit had grown from $181.4 billion in December to $183 billion in January, while Chinese exports to America were reduced by 17.6 percent. That day, President Obama, in a rare move, published a statement pressuring China on the exchange rate issue. Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) member and Bank of China Vice President Su Ning stated on March 12 that appreciation of the Chinese yuan would not suffice to solve economic imbalance, and that the exchange rate of the yuan should not be politicized (March 13, Shanghai Securities newspaper).

The media has referred to this motion by Obama as “rare,” because he has seldom weighed in on the exchange rate. This time, he not only clearly made use of the word “demand,” but the data of the Department of Commerce has issued its first “pressure” signals, indicating that the exchange rate issue has now gotten the attention of President Obama.

The United States has a long tradition of putting pressure on the yuan. In recent years, whether it be American political figures, congressmen or certain thinktanks, America is always blaming other countries — especially certain favorable countries —for its trade imbalance, although always with very few results.

At the start of the National People's Congress (NPC)-CPPCC session on March 5, Premier Wen Jiabao clearly expressed that in 2010 the exchange rate calculation method of the yuan would continue to be improved, the yuan would be kept basically stable at a rational and fair level. The statements of the “Government Work Report” on the yuan’s exchange rate were in fact no different from those of 2009. Appreciation of the yuan would be detrimental to Chinese exports, since the American dollar is appreciating while the euro and Japanese yen are depreciating. This writer believes that Obama’s “demands” are not only useless, but might worsen trade friction between China and the U.S. and broaden the gap between the two countries.

Then why is President Obama acting against his better intuitions and making “rare” demands on the yuan? This writer believes that these words are propaganda, not so much aimed at China as at the public at home in America.

The America of today bears striking similarities to the America of 2006. It is facing the same sort of midterm elections, the ruling party is in a similar crisis and the economy is again faltering indefinitely. Now that Obama has been elected, the biggest project of his party, health care reform, has come to a standstill and Republicans have threatened to filibuster against it. One year into his presidency, Obama has not been able to come through on his major campaign promise, and he has greatly disappointed the American people. Recently, while the White House has been dealing tough cards to the outside world, Obama has also been getting tough feedback at home. But pressure from the president won’t necessarily compel the American people. For this reason, Obama seems to be treading carefully at home, seizing on the opportunity to call out certain countries that are “malevolent” toward the U.S., and in the process stirring up the American spirit. Obama’s “demands toward China” have managed to cleverly transfer the blame for domestic quagmires and have garnered Americans’ sympathy for the plight of his party. When it comes to hidden agendas like this, sadly, no one thinks much of it.

Of course, China’s talk of the yuan remaining basically stable does not mean it will not change; rather it will be tweaked appropriately according to the situation. No matter how the yuan is adjusted, this is China’s sovereign task, and it is open to recommendations, but cannot be forced. Using the power of force is determined to fail.


奥巴马向中国施压的“话外音”
亦菲

美国商务部3月11日发布的报告称,1月份美国对华贸易逆差从12月的181.4亿美元增加至183亿美元,其中美国对华出口减少17.6%。当天,美国总统奥巴马罕见地发表讲话,就汇率问题向中国施压。全国政协委员、中国人民银行副行长苏宁3月12日表示,人民币升值不能解决经济失衡问题,人民币汇率问题更不应被政治化(3月13日 《上海证券报》)。

媒体称奥巴马总统此举为“罕见”,乃在于奥巴马总统上任以来很少对汇率市场置评。这一次,他不但明确使用“施压”二字,而且在美商务部数据出台的第一时间发出“施压”信号,表明汇率问题已进入奥巴马总统工作视线。

动辄对人民币施压的“传统”,美方由来已久。近年来,不论美国政要还是国会议员抑或是一些美国智库,每闻美国对外贸易不平衡,总会选择向其他国家尤其是顺差较大的国家施压,但每次都几乎没有多少效果。

在3月5日开幕的中国“两会”上,温家宝总理明确表示,2010年将继续完善人民币汇率形成机制,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定。《政府工作报告》关于人民币汇率的表述,与2009年并无不同。人民币升值对中国出口不利,因为美元在升,欧元和日元在降。笔者认为,奥巴马此番“施压”非但于事无益,还可能加剧中美贸易摩擦,扩大中美之间的分歧。

那么,奥巴马总统为何明知故犯,“罕见”地表态要对人民币进行施压呢?笔者认为,奥巴马此言与其说是向中国喊话,倒不如说是对美国国内民众说的。

时下的美国与2006年有着惊人的相似。同样的面临中期选举、同样的执政党形势危机、同样的经济没有止跌回稳。作为奥巴马竞选和上任后最大执政项目之一的美国医改被搁浅,共和党一些人士早就放出声言,要杯葛医改方案。奥巴马执政一年来没能兑现任何一项他竞选时的主要承诺,令美国民众大失所望。近来,白宫在向外不断出“硬牌”的同时,也听到了他在内政方面的“硬声”。但总统的施压不一定能压服美国人。因此,奥巴马总统对内显得小心翼翼,但抓住某些国家尤其是所谓“损害美国利益”的国家说事,总会撩动美国人的神经。奥巴马发出“向中国施压”的声音,既能达到巧妙转嫁国内矛盾的目的,又能引发美国人体谅他执政的苦衷。如此的“话外音”,恐怕没有谁会太当一回事。

当然,中国说人民币汇率保持基本稳定并不是一成不变,而是根据形势适当微调。但无论人民币汇率如何调整,都是中国的主权事务,可商量建议而决不能逼迫。因为逼迫就是强权,那注定是行不通的。
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