America’s Decline Is Just a Rumor

Published in Sohu
(China) on 29 March 2010
by Liu Yawei (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Michelle Deeter. Edited by Harley Jackson.
Is America really on the decline?

Some people say that America’s decline is a slow and long process, and this old power will die hard. Americans themselves are saying that the unemployment rate of nearly ten percent already poses a threat to national security. New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman has, for the past several years, repeatedly criticized America’s leaders, who, ever since 9/11, have lost the vision on which their country was founded and become preoccupied with anti-terrorist strategies. Ever since President Obama entered office, the Republican Party has adopted an uncooperative attitude, making America’s policy and legislation enter an uncivilized period. Despite all of this, one still cannot say that the basic stability of America’s government and its economic development has changed. America is still the world’s greatest superpower. Its military strength, economic strength and intellectual prowess are still the highest in the world.

Actually, since Obama entered the White House, the American government has already basically dispelled the loathing and criticism that the international community shows toward America’s unilateral foreign policy. The only goal it is unable to accomplish is making a positive contribution to the Middle East.

The seeming disorder and inefficacy of American domestic policy comes from two special difficulties: the two parties’ differing concept of governance and slow economic growth. The former difficulty is a characteristic of American government; it will never disappear. The latter difficulty happens because of economic laws: The American government is borrowing too heavily and this makes other countries (especially China) increasingly competitive, accelerating the rate of globalization.

The outside world is unceasingly talking about China, saying things such as “the 21st century is China’s century.” The attitude of those in China has also changed slightly. It is just as some scholars have said: “America’s sun is setting and China dreams of embracing the world.”

This is a little too optimistic.

The obstacles China faces are far bigger than the ones America has recently come across. It is true that in the 30 years since Deng Xiaoping’s opening and reform, China has clearly changed: Economic development is soaring, the standard of living is rising rapidly, individual rights are constantly being safeguarded, political freedoms are rising daily and China is playing a growing role in international affairs. However, China’s innate inadequacies (the large population, the poor quality of the environment and the imbalanced nature of economic development) create obstacles for China’s rise that are far bigger than America’s obstacles. Due to the reform and opening, China has faced a string of unprecedented difficulties, including an unchecked spread of inequality between the rich and poor, the spread of corruption, a lack of social justice, and the government’s decision to save the market by increasing investment and lending after the 2008 financial crisis. These difficulties triggered many negative repercussions. China’s political system lacks regular and reasonable avenues for citizen participation, channels of communication to discuss politics and effective and vigorous accountability for officials at all levels. For these reasons, economic and social problems of any size can cause instability. Trivial problems are treated like major problems, making them seem serious and thus leading to instability.

America might seem chaotic and unable to move forward, but its basic strength lies in the stability of its government and economy. America’s status might be relatively weak, but its absolute strength has not changed. China’s shocking changes and unparalleled efficiency will make others think its rise is not only unstoppable but also unprecedented. However, China’s methods have high costs — costs that sometimes cannot be repaid. America has not yet declined. China has not completed its rise. A country that seems to be immobile will have many worries. A country that seems to be rising in power will be bold and fearless. The government, duped by these two types of attitudes, will frequently act hastily. It will let misunderstandings rise to friction and change friction into conflict.

Fortunately, China’s policymakers have not been confused by trivialities. They have a clear, deep understanding and unique evaluations of the states of the world, the nation and its people. They are totally aware that China needs to concentrate on construction and development instead of becoming complacent or getting carried away.


美国真的衰落了吗?

  《国际先驱导报》文章

  尽管有人用“百足之虫,死而不僵”,来形容美国的衰落是一个漫长和缓慢的过程。尽管美国人自己也说接近百分之十的失业率,已经对美国的国家安全构成威胁。尽管《纽约时报》著名专栏作家托马斯·弗里德曼近年来屡屡批评美国的领导人在“9·11”之后丧失了立国的远见,被拖入反恐泥潭。尽管奥巴马总统进入白宫后,共和党断然采取不予合作的态度,使得美国的决策和立法进入民主的“蛮荒”时代……

  但是,这一切都没有能够改变美国政治稳定与经济发展的基本要素。美国依然是世界上其他任何一个国家还不能望其项背的超级大国,它的军力、财力和智力依然高高在上。

  其实,自奥巴马入主白宫后,除了在中东依然没有建树外,美国政府已经基本化解了国际社会对它单边主义外交的厌恶和指责,也基本完成了撤离伊拉克和阿富汗战场的安排。

  笔者认为,美国政府的国内政策貌似混乱和没有效率,主要是因为两个特定的困难:两党治理理念的不同和经济增长的缓慢。前者是美国政治的特色,过去、现在和将来都不会消失。后者受困于经济规律本身、美国政府举债过高和其他国家(特别是中国)竞争力的提高和全球化的加剧。

  最近对于正在崛起中的中国,外界有关“21世纪是中国世纪”的声音不绝于耳。中国国国内的心态也发生了微妙的变化,就像有的学者所说,“美国的太阳落山了,中国梦将拥抱世界。”

  这未免有些过于乐观。

  依笔者观察,中国目前面临的障碍要远远大于当前美国所碰到的。的的确确,改革开放30年,中国的变化有目共睹,经济发展扶摇直上,生活水平日新月异,个人权益不断得到保障,政治自由日益提高,在国际事务中扮演的角色越来越重要。然而,中国发展的先天不足(人口的众多、生态环境的恶劣、经济发展的不平衡)给中国崛起造成障碍远远大于美国。其次,由于改革和开放,中国又面临一系列前所未有的新困难,其中包括贫富不均的泛滥、腐败现象的扩散、社会正义的缺失和在2008年金融危机后政府为“救市”加大投资和放贷引发的后遗症。由于中国政治制度的设计尚缺乏公民有序和合理参政和议政的渠道和对各级官员的有效和有力的问责,任何经济层面或社会层面发生的大小问题往往会被高度“上纲上线”,酿成一定程度的不稳定。

  美国貌似混乱和瘫痪,但是美国的强大在于它的基本的政治和经济制度的不变和稳定;美国的地位也许相对削弱,但是它的绝对实力依然不可撼动。中国的令人震惊的变化和无可比拟的效率会让人直觉它的崛起势不可挡和空前绝后,但是举国模式往往会带来过高的、甚至无法偿还的代价。美国还没有衰落,中国也没有完成自己的崛起。一个看似静止的国家会有很多担心和忧虑,一个看似崛起的国家会有很多豪迈和无惧,被这两种心态绑架的政府常常会贸然行事,让误解上升为摩擦,把摩擦变成冲突。

  好在中国政府的决策人没有被一叶障目。他们对世情、国情、人情有着精辟的理解和独到的考量,他们十分清楚中国目前需要的依然是“聚精会神搞建设、一心一意谋发展”,而不是躺在大国的温床上洋洋自得,忘乎所以。
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