America Wants to Take Back Its Leadership Role

Published in Ta Kung Pao
(China) on 16 August 2010
by Tao Wenzhao (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Michelle Deeter. Edited by Alex Brewer.
On the whole, Sino-U.S. relations are driven by interests. During various stages of bilateral development, both countries have recognized their shared interests and at the same time, tried to negotiate their individual interests. America needs to adjust its mentality and welcome and accept China’s military’s strength and modernization. Otherwise, not only will there be constant friction between America and China, but also America will constantly feel worried and uneasy.

Recently, America has been engaging in a lot of activity around China’s periphery. They have been conducting military exercises in northeast Asia and openly getting involved in the South China Sea dispute. Why would they do this?

For the past thirty years, Sino-U.S. relations have generally been driven by interests. During various stages of bilateral development, both countries recognized their shared interests and at the same time, tried to negotiate their individual interests. In the 1980s and 1990s, most of the negotiations dealt with bilateral relations. At the turn of the century, the scope of bilateral relations has expanded greatly to include more regional and international issues. As a result, conflicts due to differing interests have also increased. This is mainly reflected in regional and global issues.

America Wants to Take Back Its Leadership Role

America is facing a complicated situation in Southeast Asia. After the end of the Vietnam War, America remained uninterested in Southeast Asia for a long time and lacked a clear strategy in the region. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was not organized by the United States; it was formed to challenge America’s strategy. In 1995, America normalized relations with Vietnam, but bilateral relations were still adversely affected by issues left unresolved after the war.

During the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998, the Clinton administration responded slowly and did very little. It seemed as if America considered Southeast Asia to be a very low priority region in its foreign policy. After September 11, 2001, America considered the region to be the second front of the war against terror, but its hard line policy caused divisions with Muslim countries such as Indonesia. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was absent from many of the ASEAN Regional Forums, causing many Americans to criticize the Bush administration for neglecting Southeast Asia.

At the same time, China was rising, and relations between China and other Southeast Asian nations were improving. China provided a lot of aid to Southeast Asian countries during the financial crisis, made sure the Chinese yuan did not depreciate and even worked hard to increase its imports from Southeast Asia. Thanks to the ASEAN+1 (including China) and ASEAN+3 (including China, Japan and South Korea) Regional Forums, ASEAN constantly increased its influence in the region. Today, China and the ASEAN members have opened a free trade zone, and they are on a fast track to economic and trade cooperation. Both political and academic experts in America suddenly noticed that power had become relatively unbalanced, which is why the Obama administration announced, “The United States is back.”

America wants to increase its cooperation with ASEAN, and as long as it benefits regional stability, there is no problem with that. Yet, America’s recent involvement in the South China Sea territorial dispute hurts regional stability. America was never a part of the South China territorial dispute. Previous administrations all maintained neutrality and would not make irresponsible remarks about the dispute. Just last year, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told news agencies in Manila during an interview that America’s policy was to not intervene in the territorial dispute involving the South China Sea islands. Now Obama wants to change the previous policy of neutrality. American officials and scholars all expressed their disapproval of China’s territorial demands.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked about international law and maritime law at the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi, Vietnam, without mentioning the history of the South China Sea conflict. It seems as if this conflict just started today. This is an extremely one-sided opinion. Expressing this kind of opinion at a dignified international meeting like the ASEAN Regional Forum provokes China, and sows discord between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors. This will undoubtedly make the issue more complicated and more bothersome. This is not helping to solve any problems; it is merely causing more trouble.

Help Is Not Welcome

America is trying its utmost to get involved in one side of the controversy, when in actuality it is trying to use these countries to balance the power between itself and China, as well as restrict China’s power. Some of these Southeast Asian countries that are making overtures with both America and China are trying to gain economic benefits, as well as a sense of security. America is just trying to use these countries; the proximity between these countries is limited. Some countries, like the Philippines, have clearly stated their position, saying that the South China Sea negotiations should be conducted strictly between China and ASEAN, without the intervention of America or other third parties. It is clear that the Philippines is not grateful for Hillary’s help.

Both domestic and foreign media agencies have commented on current developments. Some think that both America and China will reveal their strategies very soon. I think this prediction is too pessimistic. There is no need for a showdown between America and China. First of all, these various disputes have not changed the basic fact that the two countries still have broad common interests, especially economic co-dependence. Second, these disputes have not affected the importance of bilateral responses to regional and global challenges. Third, the dispute between America and China has not affected China’s relations with the international system as a whole. For the past 31 years, China has been developing within the international system, and it will continue to develop in the international system.

It is necessary for China and America to negotiate their interests more thoroughly with regard to regional and global issues. China’s international interests are expanding. Twenty years ago, maritime navigation security was not nearly as important to China as it is now. America can no longer define China as a continental country, nor can it limit China’s naval movements to the first chain of islands.

China Has Ordered an Aircraft Carrier

In order to negotiate its interests, America will have to change its mentality. America needs to truly accept that China is becoming prosperous and strong, and needs to stop feeling so sensitive about China’s development. This is easier said than done. America regards itself as the best in the universe. Americans are not satisfied with second place; they will not even accept a tie for first place. Right now, China is not competing with the big boss. Not only does China not have the ability, but it does not have the desire to compete. But America must recognize that every country has the right to exist and the right to develop. America’s military capabilities and facilities are far ahead other developed countries, not to mention developing countries.

But as soon as China slightly increases its military expenses and adds a few weapons, experts in America say that the balance of military power in the Asia-Pacific has changed, which is an exaggeration. China’s “Four Modernizations” have always included the modernization of national defense. The strength of the Chinese military must modernize, China must own an aircraft carrier, and China must have a navy. The best plan for America is to accept and welcome China’s military strength and modernization, as well as adjust its mentality. Otherwise, not only will there be constant friction between America and China, but also America will constantly feel worried and uneasy.


美欲重夺主导权 中美利益调适是恆久课题

中美关系从总体上来说是利益驱动的。在两国关系发展的各个阶段,两国不断确认共同利益,同时又在不断进行利益调适。美国必须调整心态,欢迎和接受中国的军事力量现代化。不然,不仅中美之间会摩擦不断,而且美国也会整天忧心忡忡,很不舒服。
最近,美国在中国周边动作频频:在东北亚举行军演,又公开介入南中国海的领土争议,挑拨中国邻国与中国的关系,使人们对中美关系又疑窦丛生。这一切究竟是因为什么?
三十一年来的中美关系从总体上来说是利益驱动的。在两国关系发展的各个阶段,两国不断确认共同利益,同时又在不断进行利益调适。在上世纪80年代和90年代,两国利益的相互调适主要是在双边关系问题上。进入新世纪,中美关系的范围大大拓展,包括了越来越多的地区和国际问题,两国利益的相互冲撞也随之增加了。这主要表现在地区和全球性问题上。
美欲重夺主导权
以现在令人瞩目的东南亚来说,美国在这里面临的局势是复杂的。越南战争结束以后,美国长期对东南亚提不起兴趣,也缺乏对东南亚的明确战略。东盟不是由美国主导的地区组织,它的出现和兴起本身就是对美国战略的挑战。1995年美越关系实现了正常化,但战争遗留下来的问题还在干扰两国关系。在1997─98年东亚金融危机期间,克林顿政府反应迟钝,无所作为,东南亚几乎处在美国外交的边缘地位。「9‧11」后,美国把这里视为反恐的第二战场,但美国的强硬政策与这里的一些穆斯林大国如印尼又产生分歧。国务卿赖斯又一再缺席东盟地区论坛,美国国内当时对布什政府忽视东南亚就有批评。与此同时,中国在崛起,中国与东南亚国家之间的关系在改善。中国在东亚金融危机期间对东南亚国家施以援手,坚持人民币不贬值,并竭力增加从东南亚的进口;并通过「10+1」、「10+3」、东盟地区论坛等机制不断增加对这个地区的影响力。如今中国—东盟自贸区已经正式开始运行,中国与东盟的经贸合作上了快车道。美国政界和学界一些人突然感觉这里的力量对比「失去了平衡」,奥巴马政府才要这样高调地宣布「我们回来了」,也就是说,美国要来重夺对地区事务的主导权。
美国要加强与东盟的合作,如果这种合作有利于地区的稳定,当然也无可厚非。但美国现在介入关于南中国海的领土争议恰恰不利于地区的稳定。美国从来都不是南海领土争议的一方。以前美国歷届政府的立场都是保持中立,不对争议的哪一方说三到四。直到去年,国防部长盖茨在访问马尼拉期间,还向新闻界表示,美国的现行政策是不介入南海岛屿的领土主权争端。现在奥巴马政府要改变以往的中立政策,美国官员和学者纷纷表示不支持中国的领土要求,希拉里在河内的讲话中大谈国际法和海洋法,闭口不提关于南中国海争议的歷史依据,好像这种争议是今日才有的,这是一种很片面的立场。在东盟地区论坛这样一个庄严的国际场合以这样片面的方式提出问题,就是对中国立场的挑衅,是在中国与其东南亚邻国之间制造不和,挑拨离间。这样做的结果无疑只会把问题搞得更加复杂、更加麻烦,「越帮越忙」,更不利于问题的解决。
「帮忙」并不受欢迎
美国现在竭力想拉拢争议的一方,实际上是想利用这些国家作为美国平衡中国、牵制中国的砝码。一些东南亚国家在中美两国之间周旋是为了获得多一点的安全感,并在经济上得到一些好处。美国与这些国家之间也就是相互利用罢了,它们的接近是有限度的。实际上,有的国家,如菲律宾已经明确地表示了态度,南海谈判应该严格地在东盟国家与中国之间进行,不需要美国或其他任何第三方的介入。显然,他对希拉里的「帮忙」并不领情。
对于当前的事态发展,国内和国外的媒体议论纷纷,有的认为,中美两国的战略摊牌会加速到来。笔者认为这种估计未免过于悲观。中美之间的战略摊牌没有歷史的必然性。首先,两国之间的种种纠葛没有改变两国具有广泛共同利益这一中美关系的基本属性,尤其是经济上的相互依赖。其次,两国之间的纷争也没有改变双方合作共同应对地区和全球性挑战的重要性。第三,两国之间的纷争也没有改变中国与国际体系的关系。过去三十一年来,中国是在现存国际体系内得到发展的,也还将在这个体系内发展。
中美之间在地区和全球性问题上进行进一步的利益调适势在必行。中国的国家利益在拓展。在二十年前,海上航行安全对于中国显然没有像现在这样重要。美国不能再把中国定位为一个「大陆国家」,不能再把中国海军的活动范围限制在所谓「第一岛屿链」之内。
中国定会拥航母
要进行利益调适,美国要进一步调整心态。美国要确实准备接受一个繁荣和强大的中国,要消除对中国发展的过敏心理。这话说起来容易,做起来难。美国的心态是「老子天下第一」。美国人不仅不能屈居第二,甚至连并列第一也不能容忍。现在中国不跟你争这个老大。中国不仅没有这个能力,也没有这个意愿。但美国也要认识到,每个国家都有生存和发展的权利。美国的军事装备和设施别说与发展中国家比,就是与其他发达国家比都遥遥领先。可是现在中国增加一点军费,改善一点武器,美国就有专家说「改变了亚太的军事平衡」,未免太言过其实了。中国的「四化」本来就包括了国防现代化。中国的军事力量是一定要现代化的,中国一定会拥有航母,拥有「蓝水海军」。调整心态,欢迎和接受中国的军事力量现代化才是正确的办法。不然,不仅中美两国之间会摩擦不断,而且美国自己整天忧心忡忡,日子也会过得很不舒服。
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