Obama’s Problems with the Democratic Party

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 22 November 2010
by Yu Shiyu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Michelle Deeter. Edited by Heidi Kaufmann.
Even though President Barack Obama has said that America has reached an era of post-partisan politics, he has never stopped fighting with the Republican Party. After the midterm elections, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced the Republican Party’s goal was to make Obama a “one-term president.” The Republican Party has no qualms about delaying approval in the Senate for Obama’s biggest foreign policy project to date — a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia.

But Obama, depressed and dejected, not only has to deal with an absolutely irreconcilable Republican Party; he also faces an increasing surge of Democrats questioning his accountability. This is faintly reminiscent of trouble stirred up by the former Clinton-led faction, which complained about Obama in 2008.

In the two weeks since the midterm elections, many of the close elections are being announced, and the Democratic Party’s crushing defeat is becoming more and more pronounced. The results in Congress and in the state-level elections are horrible spectacles.

For example, Alabama is enjoying Republican majorities in both the House and Senate, for the first time since 1874. In Wisconsin, traditionally a blue (Democratic) state, Republicans control both houses. Even Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold, a man with a depth of experience, was defeated by a Republican. Republicans will control both houses in North Carolina as well. All these states are traditionally blue states. As another example, in New England and in New York, the Republican Party made considerable gains. Even the Senate seat in Illinois, left vacant by President Obama, was given up to the Republican Party.

The Democrats’ blood bath was not just the work of Republican voters. It primarily reflected the defection of a large number of voters in America. It is obvious that besides the economic recession, the American public lost hope in the Obama administration.

Despite all this, American voters are loath to forget the eight-year political track record of George W. Bush, especially the real estate bubble and the financial tsunami that he ignored, directly causing the largest economic recession since World War II. In contrast, Bill Clinton’s administration is being remembered as a time of peace and prosperity by most Americans. Not only the Democrats and the Independents, but even a few Republicans are starting to think nostalgically about the economic prosperity of the Clinton era, when America experienced its first federal budget surplus in several decades.

At least among Democratic candidates, former President Bill Clinton was naturally one of the most popular leaders before his midterm elections. Love extended from Bill Clinton to Hillary Clinton, and her political ratings were fairly high as well.

Obama Lacks Common Experiences Shared by American Society

Even though both Clinton and Obama are products of an elite Ivy League education, they have different family backgrounds and different upbringings, which cause major differences overall. Obama was basically raised by his grandparents, enjoying an elite education and a gentleman’s life. For this reason, he lacks many of the general experiences that most in American society have had. In contrast, Clinton’s father died when he was a child, and he was raised by lower-class whites, which made his social experiences more popular.

This was reflected in his policies, where Clinton preferred a center-right path, which catered to the social conservatives, or Blue Dog Democrats, of middle America and the American South. Especially in the social welfare system reform that he advocated, he was incredibly leftist and earned the support of many centrist voters.

Even though Obama is advertised to be center-left, I have always considered him and his troupe to be too arrogant and too Ivy League. Due to this lofty elitism, the Obama administration puts too much emphasis on traditional liberalist ideology like protecting disadvantaged groups. A good example of this is health care reform.

Taking this traditional Democratic path ignores the most significant feature of American polarized politics in the past few decades: The economic status of the lower class was relatively stable and was not getting noticeably worse. But now the gap between the middle class and the upper class is constantly widening, and the position of the middle class relative to the overall distribution of wealth is slipping. This pushed the middle class to the brink of a crisis. Now, Obama is being punished by middle-class voters. One might say he deserved the punishment.

Most Democrats are perfectly clear: Obama is largely responsible for the disastrous defeat in the midterm elections. Since the president always has the most political resources, Democrats had a hard time being heard over Obama’s grumblings, although they became louder and clearer every day. The Blue Dog Democrats of the South, who lost the most, have the hardest time being heard. All of them accused the White House of making them lose centrist-voter support during the midterm elections. Hillary Clinton became more popular within the party, to say the least.

Regarding the defeat in the midterm election, it is a tradition in America that the related leader in Congress will take the blame and step down after a defeat. But this time there was a complete change in the leadership of the House. Former Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi is, unexpectedly, refusing to give up her post and is serving another term as House Democratic Leader.

This reflects two facts. First, Pelosi comes from California, one of the few states where the Democrats did not lose. More importantly, it reflects the consensus that the one who deserves the most blame for this defeat is Obama.

Patrick Caddell, senior adviser to former President Jimmy Carter, and Doug Schoen, adviser to former President Bill Clinton, wrote an article in The Washington Post, requesting that for the sake of national interests, President Obama not seek another term in office. This blatant request to “tell the emperor to abdicate” shows the mood within the Democratic Party after the midterm elections. At the same time, The New York Times extolled Hillary Clinton, saying that she had gained the trust of authorities in Israel, unlike Obama, and further stating that she could resolve the Middle East issue. This article gives some food for thought.

As the political mood in America is constantly changing, it is hard to estimate whether Obama will successfully be elected to a second term in office. But the first challenge that Obama has to face is the ever-increasing wave that questions his accountability.


 虽然奥巴马曾经宣扬过“后党派政治”,他与共和党双方都从未放松过党争。中期选举之后,共和党参议院领袖麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnel)公开声明,今后首要目标是使奥巴马成为“一任总统”。共和党因此不惜在参议院拖延批准奥巴马至今最大的外交成就——与俄罗斯的最新削减战略性武器条约(START)。

  可是中期选举后灰头土脸的奥巴马,除了政治上“不共戴天”的共和党,还在民主党内面临日益汹涌的问责暗涛,隐约反映了对奥巴马有宿怨的原克林顿派系蠢蠢欲动。

  中期选举后两周以来,许多票数接近的结果不断揭晓,日益彰显了民主党的惨败。除了联邦众议院,州一级选举结果也惨不忍睹。

  例如共和党自从1874年来首次控制了阿拉巴马州议会两院;传统偏“蓝”的威斯康星州资深联邦参议员范戈尔德(Russ Feingold)落选之外,州议会两院也几十年来首次全由共和党掌握多数;北卡罗莱纳州也在一个多世纪来出现同一情况。就是在传统“深蓝”地区.例如东北部新英格兰地区和纽约州,共和党也颇有斩获。连奥巴马原先伊利诺州联邦参议员的遗缺,也输给了共和党。

  民主党遭到如此“血洗”,决不只是共和党选民的功劳,更反映了美国中间派选民大批“反水”。经济衰退之外,美国民众对奥巴马政府的失望,显而易见。

  但是对于八年小布什政府的政绩,尤其是放任产生的房产泡沫和金融海啸,直接导致二战以来最大的经济衰退,美国选民并不健忘。相形之下,八年克林顿政府成为大部分美国民众记忆犹新的“太平盛世”,不仅民主党和独立派,就连一些共和党人也开始怀念克林顿时代的经济强势,以及联邦预算几十年来的首次大宗盈余。

  至少在民主党选民中,克林顿在中期选举之前就自然而然成为最受欢迎的政治领袖。爱屋及乌,希拉莉的政治行情也相应高涨。

奥巴马缺乏基层经历

  尽管克林顿和奥巴马都是美国常春藤精英教育的产物,两人的不同出身和成长道路还是有很大的区别。奥巴马实际长期在外祖父母抚养下,享受了上层贵族学校教育和“绅士”生活,缺乏与普通美国社会的接触经历。而克林顿自幼丧失生父,在下层白人中长大,社会经历上十分大众化。

  反映在政策上,克林顿走的是“中左”路线,迎合了美国中南部社会价值保守的“蓝狗”(Blue dog)民主党势力。特别是他倡导的社会福利体制改革,大幅度“纠左”,获得了中间派选民的好感。

  奥巴马虽然也标榜“中左”,但是我从一开始就评论过他的班子,太多自命不凡的“常春藤色彩”。出于这样高高在上的精英主义,奥巴马施政偏向重在保护弱势群体的传统自由主义,全民医保改革是个典型的例子。

  这样的“经典”民主党路线,忽视了过去几十年来美国两极分化的最大特色:社会下层的经济地位相对稳定,并无更显著的恶化。但是中产阶级与上层阶级的距离却不断加大,在整个财富分布中的相对地位下滑,加速中产阶级的危机感。奥巴马如今受到中层选民惩罚,可说“罪有应得”。

  大部分民主党人都一清二楚,奥巴马对中期选举惨败负有主要责任。因为在职总统具有极大的政治资源,民主党内部对奥巴马的怨言难以上升为主流声音,但是也日益响亮。特别是这次输得最惨的中南部“蓝狗”民主党人,无不指责白宫政策使得他们失去了中间派民意。克林顿夫妇在党内的行情更上层楼,自不待言。

  对于中期选举的失败,美国传统是有关国会领袖引咎下台。可是在彻底变天的众议院,原来的多数党领袖佩洛西竟然恋栈不去,再任民主党领袖。

  这除了佩洛西来自的加州,是这次民主党少有的不败地盘外,更反映了谁最终该对选举失败负责的党内共识,对奥巴马并非福音。

  卡特总统的顾问卡戴尔(Patrick Caddel)和克林顿总统的顾问舒恩(Doug Schoen)在《华盛顿邮报》上联名发表评论,要求奥巴马总统为了国家利益,主动宣布不寻求连任总统。如此公然“逼宫”,反映了中期选举惨败后的党内情绪。《纽约时报》同时大力称颂希拉莉,同亲以色列势力的关系比奥巴马更好,更有能力处理中东问题,令人咀嚼这里的言外之意。

  在多变的美国政情下,目前难以低估二年后奥巴马的连任胜算。但是民主党内日益增强的问责浪潮,是奥巴马必须首先面对的挑战。
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