Be Wary of America Luring Northeast Asia into a Gang Fight

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 14 January 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jason Nordmark. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
In the modern history of Northeast Asia, there has been the Cold War, in which Americans, Japanese and South Koreans ganged up together against China, Russia and North Korea. In the wake of Japan’s sudden economic rise, the clash between the American and Japanese economies intensified; only then was there an improvement in relations between the U.S. and China. But recently, it seems that since America has returned to Northeast Asia, they are attempting to band together with Japan and South Korea. They are attempting to put on an old play and resurrect the Cold War. It seems they want to pull Northeast Asia back into the Cold War period’s state of affairs.

Seemingly, Northeast Asia again has started into a period of fighting, from the “Tian An” ship incident to Yanping Island’s bombardment and the recent Japanese-Korean military agreement. Taking all of this together looks like it is by chance — but in fact, it was certainly started by American incitement. Focus on the answer after the recent shelling; every country has a plan.

America and Japan have used the Korean situation to launch a diplomatic war of nerves. The prior Japanese cabinet was caught by the desire to relocate the Futenma American military base and had no way to back down. This time, America’s return to Northeast Asia is a golden opportunity. The right wing politicians will not have success. Recent trends in Japanese politics and military affairs explain this a little.

North Korea continuously pursues a two track political policy trajectory. One is sealed in blood and will lead to war. The second is to wish for an opening to the outside world and is unlikely to result in a smooth political transition of power.

South Korea's actions, for all concerned parties, are somewhat embarrassing. Lee Myung-bak's conduct in the democratization of Korea leans toward conservatism. Kim Dae-jung took office to halt the “Sunshine Policy” and only worsened the ethnic hatred for North Korea. North and South relations are this cabinet’s most variable factor. But the government’s conduct certainly got America’s nod of approval before it went into force.

It looks as if America is unanimous on the Korea issue, but it has a deeper design. America has already been on this battlefield and wants to return to others. America’s participation in bilateral and multilateral relations has a deeper plan. America has already begun to quietly change its strategy. America wants to take the Korean island bombardment issue and drown China with it.

Foreign public opinion believes that China has an ambiguous attitude. As a matter of fact, China’s attitude has consistently been to maintain the status quo. Notice that China always has the worst intentions, the best expectations, the hardest efforts, the most powerful endurance and the last victory. No matter how the wind blows, China will not tolerate the destruction of peace in Northeast Asia.

In this day and age, the Cold War framework and barriers are long gone. Japanese-American mutually beneficial relations have long since seeped into politics, culture and economics for both countries. The Japanese people have suffered in the past from war. Therefore, the Japanese people still hold a grudge against the U.S. for having bases in Japan. I wish that America’s professed desire to return to Northeast Asia will be tactful in its approach. It should consider the decision in its entirety and be careful not to cause a fight in Northeast Asia, to avoid creating a new record of grief.

Handling variable and complicated multilateral relations is difficult and troublesome. Moreover, the result often is contrary to one’s wishes. I challenge the United States to think twice before entering a contest it will not win. America must look before they leap.


刘刚:警惕美国诱使东亚“打群架”

2011-01-14 08:16 环球时报 我要评论 分享
字号:T|T
摘要:日本国民过去深受战争之苦,迄今人们仍然对美军基地的存在心存芥蒂和隐痛,但愿声称重返亚洲的美国,要知趣识大体、顾大局、负责任,不要诱致东亚群架互殴,从而制造新的悲痛纪录。
  东亚现代史上曾有过“冷战”体制下,美日韩抱团跟中朝苏打“群架”时代。但随着日本经济崛起,美日经济摩擦加剧,才有了美日竞相与中国改善关系。但最近似乎随着美国的返回东亚,试图纠结日韩,重演过去的冷战“温情”,似乎要把东亚拽回冷战时期的“群架”状态。


  东亚地区似乎又开始打群架的时代。从“天安”号事件,到延坪岛炮击,再到最近的日韩军事协定,这一切的发生看似偶然,其实必然,美国起了煽动的作用。围绕炮战后的应对,各国各有打算。


  美国和日本利用韩朝局势,展开外交神经战。日本菅内阁正为夹在普天间美军基地迁移问题激发的地方自治体和平运动和内阁政府对美一边倒政策中间而骑虎难下。此番有美国重返东亚的良机,右翼政客们正可以借鸡下蛋,放题而为!最近的日本政治和军事动向说明这一点。


  朝鲜则一直奉行两条轨道政策,一是朝中用鲜血凝成的战斗友谊万古常青;二是希望既实现“改革开放”又不至于影响政权顺利交接。


  韩国作为当事者处境颇为尴尬。李明博作为韩国民主化以来最倾向于保守主义的总统,一上台就叫停金大中开创的“阳光政策”,纠结了朝鲜满腹“民族仇恨”,在韩国国内也是赞否两论。南北关系成为韩国现内阁最具变数的因子。但政府的举措却一定要经过美国首肯才可施行。


  美国看似和韩国立场一致,但其实有更深的谋算。美国已经从别的战场、别的领域要重返东亚。美国在与东亚中日韩朝的双边或多边关系中,有更大的盘算。美国已然悄无声息地改变战略,拔出萝卜带出泥,美国要借朝鲜半岛问题拉中国下水。


  国外舆论认为中国态度暧昧,其实中国态度一贯,那就是维持现状。须知中国遇事从来都是作最坏的打算,最善的期望,最大的努力,最强的耐性,最后的胜利,不管风云如何变幻,中国不容破坏东亚和平大局。


  今天的时代,早已脱离冷战框架的藩篱,中美、中日间的互惠互利关系早已渗透政治经济文化的所有层面。日本国民过去深受战争之苦,迄今人们仍然对美军基地的存在心存芥蒂和隐痛,但愿声称重返亚洲的美国,要知趣识大体、顾大局、负责任,不要诱致东亚群架互殴,从而制造新的悲痛纪录。



  处理复杂多变的国际多边关系,原本棘手,并且结果往往事与愿违。相激弗如相知,挑战不如共赢,美国需要三思而行!▲(作者是日本冲绳大学教授。)
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