Campaign Strategy 201

It seems that Americans can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. The question is no longer if American soldiers will leave Iraq, but rather, at what time.

Since Friday, we are witnessing a sudden change of public attitude. First, a surprise agreement! Last Friday, Washington and Baghdad agreed to say that there will be an eventual withdrawal of American troops, but they did not set a date. The next day, the Iraqi Prime Minster upped the audacity by declaring not only that his country wishes for the withdrawal of American soldiers, but added December 2010 as the deadline. Al-Malaki had nothing to lose, since Iraqis never hid their desire to see the departure of Americans from their territory. The visit of Barack Obama fell just to the point, and Al-Malaki protected himself well by integrating himself in the American electoral campaign. At most, the time has come to put pressure on the Bush government which, in his opinion, does not seem sufficiently anxious to leave Iraq.

The press made a big state of Obama’s victorious trip. The Iraqi government’s decision supports the strategy of the Democratic candidate who foresaw the repatriation of military forces in the first sixteen months of his term. Yet John McCain tried his hardest to make it clear that if governments can discuss the possibility of an eventual withdrawal, is in in large part thanks to the solution that he recommended last year, that of sending some military reinforcements in order to stabilize the country. This same strategy against that which elevated his rival, Barack Obama.

In the short term, there is no doubt that Obama benefits from the declarations provided by the Iraqi government. First, the policies of the Illinois Senator seem to be based on new military and political realities. The conditions on the ground have improved considerably from six months ago, and Iraqis hope to take their destiny in their own hands. And then, the American population is anxious to see an end to this war.

Mid-term, that is to say, between now and the November election more than three months away, what will the voters have retained? Will they give the credit to Barack Obama or to John McCain? Will conditions on the ground have deteriorated to the point where they delay the due date of departure? Since the declaration of the Bush administration on Friday, the whole world is in agreement on the repatriation of the troops.

Here, where there are once again differences of opinion, is the time. McCain thinks the situation still remains fragile. A Republican strategist admitted this morning that if his party wants to preserve the White House, McCain should also clearly affirm that the United States will not be taken into the conflict indefinitely. The strategy is, therefore, to refine the speech so that McCain’s position comes closer to that of his adversary, without his having to decide on a precise calendar. Whether the soldiers return to their country sooner or later, say the Republicans, that is all that will count in the mind of the public. In the meantime, they will have removed the Democrats’ ammunition and reduced the force of what is at stake that represents Iraq. Furthermore, McCain’s position will possibly prove that his caution was justified.

Then, who will be the winner of the Iraq debate? Incapable of settling, I decided to put on my espadrilles and go for a walk. I-pod in belt, I am determined to change my ideas within a good hour. By following Seventeenth Avenue, a woman who was watering her flowers stopped me and asked me if I knew anything about gardening. I hesitate and answer her, “Yes, a little.” “Is it a wild flower or a bad herb?” she pursued. “Hum, I think that is acts like a flower, but I’m not sure. I have never seen this flower before,” I tell her. “Really! In any case, I’m going to leave it and give it a chance to flourish,” she adds.

On the point of continuing on my way after this courteous exchange, I cannot help but return and ask her on my stroll, “Have you followed the news in the past few days on the developments in Iraq?”. “Yes, yes. What a relief our children are going to return home!” she tells me in an encouraged air. I did not ask her if she was a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or yet, if the date of the soldiers’ return was important. Suddenly, everything seemed secondary.