Recent Developmentsin Georgia TriggerTalk of Cold War II

Due to recent developments in Georgia, there is no dispute that the relationship between the two super powers, the United States and Russia, has dropped to the lowest point since the end of the Cold War. After Russia sent troops to Georgia; the U.S. signed a deal with Poland to place a missile base in Poland. Rumors have it that Russia could place nuclear weapons on its Balkan fleet; another rumor says Russia aims missiles at Georgia. It seems like the two sides are ready to fight a war; there are talks of a new Cold War, bringing the U.S. and Russia back to pre-1992 Cold War period.

Given the relationship between the U.S. and Russia in the last decades or so, actions between the U.S. and Russia in the last two weeks were quite unusual. Still, these events in the two weeks compared to the Cold War might seems small potatoes, however, further provocations between the two nations might lead to the Cold War. There are no benefits to the returning of the Cold War.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor during the Carter administration and currently a professor at John Hopkins University, known to have a hawkish view during the Cold War, said he did not think the return of the Cold War seemed likely in a Time magazine interview last week. Brzezinski quoted Putin’s view on the dissolution of the Soviet Union; it was “the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century.” Brzezinski said that the West must respond to Russia’s invasion, however, “that doesn’t mean with force, nor should it fall into a new Cold War with Russia.” Although a hawk during the Cold War, Brzezinski has a pragmatic approach today. Today the U.S. and Russia cannot afford the return of the Cold War.

The Cold War was a product of the East and West. Both East and West had an arm race to build up their military during the Cold War. During the height of the Cold War, both the U.S. and Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons could have destroyed the entire planet several times. There was a joke about the Cold War: two people are talking about the Third World War, one guesses who would win, the other says he does not know who would win the Third World War, however, he sure knows that the Forth World War’s weapon of choice would be stones-–a reference on the destruction of mankind in the would-be Third World War. In reality, both countries are not able bring back the Cold War. As we all know, one of the reasons that the Soviet Union broke up was that it put too much economic resources against the “Star War” plan, leading to an economic disaster. This lesson taught both countries that if they are not intending to destroy the other, then military buildup is not a wise choice.

Economic Relationships Might Prevent the Return of the Cold War

More importantly, the interdependent relationship between Western Europe and Russia since the breakup of the Soviet Union plays an important role. Western European countries increasingly rely on Russia for oil and natural gas–oil and natural gas import from Russia is at 50% and 60% respectively. That is why some of the NATO member countries have an indifferent attitude toward Russia’s invasion in Georgia. On the other hand, Russia would have to think twice before it puts more aggressive moves in Georgia, due to its income from exporting oil and natural gas. This is the new reality in a post Cold War world.

We would like to point out that although there will not be a full-blown Cold War like the one before the breakup of the Soviet Union, there could be a mini version of Cold War-–the U.S. responded to the Russians by putting a missile base in Poland is an undisputed example. The developments in Georgia tell us two things: first, Russia will not hesitate to act on its self interests; second, the U.S. suffers a staggering blow in this recent development in Georgia. President Bush and the next president must do whatever it takes to change its image. For the sake of U.S. geopolitical stand, be it GOP or the Democrats, the U.S. must respond swiftly. Otherwise, no one will ever listen to the U.S. again.

In the future, further developments between the two countries can’t be avoided. The two sides should be careful though, to avoid a full-blown Cold War. If some nation wants to provoke the two sides into a full-blown Cold War they might be disappointed, due to the current economically interdependent world in which we live today.