Why Do Neocons Wish for Another Cold War?

On the surface, the Georgian War, which has caused a confrontation between America and Russia, was sparked by pro-American Georgia’s invasion of pro-Russian South Ossetia. However, it seems that America’s neocons intervened underneath. Although Condoleezza Rice, U.S. Secretary of State, is known to have opposed Georgia’s plan for invasion, there exists a connection between the neocons and the government of Georgia.

Randy Scheunemann, a foreign-policy aide of McCain — the Republican presidential nominee and also a friend of Mikheil Saakashvili, the president of Georgia — happens to be an aggressive neocon who strongly advocated the Iraq war, with a career as a registered lobbyist for the Republic of Georgia. As Putin, the Prime Minister of Russia, insisted, there is a possibility that the neocons instigated the Georgian War to create circumstances in which McCain could turn the tables in the presidential election.

Yet, a more fundamental motive lies in creating a new weapons market to maintain America’s military-industrial complex. After the Cold War, America’s military-industrial complex faced management pressure because of a sudden decline in sales, and they have been looking for new enemies with all their might to create a demand for weapons. At first, the neocons, who have been in power since George W. Bush became president, set China as their new enemy. Then they found North Korea. North Korea’s nuclear issue was an extension.

The neocons and military-industrial complex are closely connected by a food chain; the former creating demand for weapons by inciting wars, the latter providing positions and huge projects. As the special demands of the Iraq War slumped, neocons devoted all their strength to develop a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. Until now, over $100 billion dollars have been invested as a development cost for a missile defense system, and additional expenses are estimated to be a few hundred billion. From the military-industrial complex’s position it’s like a golden goose.

Poland and the Czech Republic were targets. But the justification was weak. That it was for defense against the possible threat of Iran’s missile attack wasn’t useful in the reality of Iran not having those long-distance missiles. Poland had to hesitate when Russia strongly accused them of placing missiles for the purpose of attacking Russia. But the Georgian War solved this justification problem in an instant because the threat was actualized by Russia, who has nuclear weapons, invading Georgia. Poland changed their attitude in a day and agreed to house ten U.S. interceptor missiles.

However, America lost its hegemony as a price. America has to share its influence with powerful countries — including Russia and China — in maintaining global order from now on. Especially because of their hostilities, America would not be able to expect Russia’s cooperation in problems in the Middle East, such as Iran’s nuclear program. It makes preventing Iran’s nuclear development a virtual impossibility. This part warns how tense the situation in the Middle East will become hereafter. The situation in Northeast Asia, including North Korea’s nuclear program, is also expected to become a lot more complicated. Decline in America’s influence is likely to cause individual rushes in the countries concerned with strategic interests in Northeast Asia, such as China, Japan, Russia, and North Korea. In the case of South Korea and Japan, allies of America, its new cold war strategy concentrating on blocking Russia will bring forward a serious security dilemma. South Korea in particular, whose concern lies in strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance, will confront a significant crisis if it doesn’t adapt itself to this reorganization of the global order called the multi-polar world.