The U.S. One Week Before November 4th

One week remains until the presidential election in the United States. According to the polls, Democratic candidate Barack Obama is 9% ahead of his rival, Republican John McCain. Data from Reuters, C-SPAN and Zogby indicates that if the election took place on October 25th, 51% of voters would vote for Obama and 42% for McCain. However, over the past two weeks, the senator from Arizona slightly reduced the gap with the senator from Illinois. Earlier in the month, Obama was ahead of his rival by 14 percentage points.

Be that as it may, only a miracle can still save McCain from defeat on November 4. However, all kinds of miracles can happen during the presidential campaign in the U.S. The Republican candidate can count not only on the resurgence of racist feelings in the white part of the electorate, but above all on the fear of change by millions and millions of Americans.

According to the opinion polls, approximately 70% of Americans are not satisfied with the way President Bush is fulfilling his duties; more than ¾ are dissatisfied with the work of Congress; finally, more than 85% (an unprecedented number!) believe that their country is heading the wrong way. And yet, over 40% of American voters are going to vote for McCain — the man who (and this is completely clear) will not change anything if he’s in the White House. The reasons for this are his political ideology (while in Senate, McCain supported bills by the Bush administration 90% of the time), and simply his age (he is 72 years old).

The fear of change is caused by the deep conservatism of a substantial part of the American electorate. For the most part, these are white, deeply religious representatives of the middle class, who live in provincial America and don’t have a good education. The extravagant Sarah Palin is not only their candidate, she’s one of them.

Notorious “Joe the Plumber” (Samuel “Joe” Wurzelbacher) from Ohio is the embodiment of the fears and hopes of blue-collar America. Joe plans to open his own businesses, but fears that Barack Obama’s economic reform would force him to pay higher taxes. Actually, Obama suggests raising taxes on annual incomes in excess of $250,000 per year, and it’s unlikely that an American plumber (or driver, mechanic, electrician, etc.) would earn such amount. But many American “Joe the Plumbers” don’t have any desire to understand the intricacies of the candidates’ pre-election programs. Instead, they have hard-core conservative and racial prejudices, which can change the outcome of the 2008 election at the last moment. These prejudices have an impact not only on domestic policy, but also on the foreign policy of the U.S. People voting for McCain would like to preserve not only their own welfare, but also the American hegemony in the world. And yet, they only vaguely visualize that world, which they deeply believe that America is called upon to lead.

“There is a deep chasm between the self-perception of Americans and other peoples’ vision of America,” noted V. Krasheninnikova, a Russian scholar. “Most Americans truly aren’t aware of how their foreign policy and all its aspects — military, political, ideological, cultural, economic — are perceived by other nations as expansionism, and America itself is seen as a danger rather than a guarantor of peace. While many Americans are convinced that they ‘rescued from tyranny’ and ‘gave freedom’ to some people, they are surprised to hear that those people do not want them on their land, and hate America.”

However, people are conservative everywhere and much of the time, and Americans are no exception. Political initiative is created by the elite; it’s the elite who are everywhere and always pushes for and achieves reforms. And the American elite are clearly counting on Obama. Pillars of the American establishment such as newspapers such as The Washington Post and The New York Times have already expressed their support for Obama. The New York Times’ editorial board in particular noted in their story that, “Mr. Obama … has shown a cool head and sound judgment. We believe he has the will and the ability to forge the broad political consensus that is essential to finding solutions to this nation’s problems. At the same time, Senator John McCain of Arizona has retreated farther and farther to the fringe of American politics, running a campaign on partisan division, class warfare and even hints of racism. His policies and worldview are mired in the past.”

In other words, Americas powerful elite do not believe that McCain would be able to lead the country out of the current crisis in America. They’re counting on Obama. This is why an unprecedented number of high-ranking functionaries of the Republican Party expressed their support for the black Democratic senator. The list includes the former Governor of Massachusetts William Weld, former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan, and former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.

The American establishment is clearly not satisfied with the views and approaches of the senator from Arizona, not only with respect to domestic and economic issues, but also the problems of U.S. foreign policy. Only recently McCain’s appeals to throw Russia out of the G8 found sympathy among many people in the U.S., and now such ideas are rather irritating. The upcoming G20 summit on November 15th in Washington means that McCain’s idea of the so-called “league of democracies” will be buried forever, without ever being born.

Republican candidate’s limited foreign-policy views have been reflected on his election campaign website. The “National Security” section talks about “Fighting Against Violent Islamic Extremists and Terrorist Tactics,” “Effective Missile Defense,” and “Modernizing the Armed Services.” That’s all. Thus far, McCain has failed to put forward other ideas about reforming U.S. foreign policy.

Obama’s website, by contrast, has an extensive foreign policy section, which elaborates on what policies, if elected, the Democratic President will carry out in the Middle East, Africa, in relation to European allies, Russia and Latin America. Note that Moscow is unlikely to be pleased with Obama’s plans to “[strengthen] the Transatlantic alliance, so that we can deal with Russia with one, unified voice” or “[help] to decrease the dependence of our allies and partners in the region on Russian energy.” It seems that in the White House, Obama would protect U.S. interests far better than McCain.

At the same time, Obama does not exclude dialogue with Russia on issues of mutual interest, “such as countering nuclear proliferation, reducing our nuclear arsenals, expanding trade and investment opportunities, and fighting Al Qaeda and the Taliban.” He suggests, “Keeping the door open to fuller integration into the global system for all states in the region, including Russia.” And generally the senator from Illinois intends to reexamine, “the Bush-Cheney approach to diplomacy that refuses to talk to leaders we don’t like. Not talking doesn’t make us look tough – it makes us look arrogant… it makes it harder for America to rally international support for our leadership. On challenges ranging from terrorism to disease, nuclear weapons to climate change, we cannot make progress unless we can draw on strong international support.”

Let us emphasize once again that in his foreign policy, Obama will seek to assert American leadership in world politics. At the same time the senator from Illinois has a better understanding of the surrounding world than his colleague — the senator from Arizona. And that makes Obama a possible (although not a very easy) conversation partner in the future Russian-American dialogue.