A Poisoned Inheritance

It’s finally over. On January 20th, Democrat Barack Obama will become America’s 44th President. From his first day, he won’t be in an enviable position.

Never before has an incoming President inherited such a bedraggled nation from his predecessor: a financial system sentenced to death by a deregulated and rampaging banking system, an astronomical budget deficit, an economy on the verge of recession and one-third of the population without health insurance or pensions.

Billions of dollars have been squandered in Iraq and Afghanistan. Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib, laws permitting torture, the indifference to international law, the erosion of alliances and ignorance of other cultures made Bush’s America vulnerable, incredible and suspect. Surveys taken just before the election showed that almost 80 percent of Americans thought Bush had led the country into a hopeless mess.

An unencumbered and charismatic figure

In such circumstances, it was easy for Obama to offer himself as an unencumbered, savvy and charismatic figure with the motto “change” to a public thirsting for a new direction. Just a couple of years ago, he was a political unknown. Without Bush and the frustration he unleashed in the land, an Obama candidacy wouldn’t even have been possible. But never before in its history had a nation longed for change as much as America did after eight years of Bush. Obama embodied that change. In that respect, he could well be considered the Texas cowboy President’s greatest accomplishment.

The new President is now expected to lead Americans out of these depths, but a more inexperienced man with a shorter list of accomplishments has seldom, if ever, taken over in the White House. Lofty statements like “We’re the people you’ve been waiting for,” that may have gone over well during the campaign will no longer be enough.

Obama’s victory is America’s bill for an out-of-control Republican administration that created, in many respects, a failed state. Bush’s inheritance will be a heavy burden: Obama will govern an America that reached its zenith after the end of the Cold War, reigned for a short time as the world’s only superpower, and is already in decline. The dream of a unipolar world that danced to America’s tune has faded.

A long-term loss of reputation and authority

Even without Bush’s invasion of Iraq and the resulting entrapment of the United States in the never-ending Iraqi swamp, the emergence of new non-Western powers would have made it impossible for America to retain its superior position for very long. The level to which America’s international respect and ability to get things done has declined is clear to its friends and foes alike: nearly all America’s original “coalition of the willing” partners in Iraq have already withdrawn their troops or plan to do so in the near future.

Iran, the strategic victor of America’s disenchantment in Iraq, holds fast to its nuclear plans despite Washington’s threats. Russia, just a few years ago always willing to accommodate the United States in most matters, now openly defies it. In Asia, traditional allies of the United States have begun to orient themselves toward the growing influence of China. Even at its own doorstep in Latin America, forces critical of the United States are experiencing a renaissance.

This long-term loss of prestige and authority won’t be reversed by Obama’s election. Neither the more cooperative tone of his rhetoric nor the presence of the 65-year old, more experienced Joe Biden as a vice president who has many of the skills Obama lacks can change the basic situation.

Hope for more power

Joe Biden has nothing to learn from George W. Bush’s confrontational style. The foreign policy expert understands not only the importance of America’s leadership role, he also understands its limits. He is convinced America must work more closely in cooperation with its allies. His influence will be mainly felt in those areas where Washington and its partners don’t necessarily see eye-to-eye – such as policies on Russia, Iraq and Iran.

Obama’s statements during the campaign, as well as Biden’s foreign policy experience, give hope to the possibility that the incoming President will pursue a more pragmatic and multilateral approach to both foreign and security policy. From the American side, multilateralism is often seen as a way to dominate the world while expecting everyone to share in the costs.

That won’t change much under Obama’s presidency. We can expect the incoming administration to make better use of soft power to get cooperation from its allies, but with that will also come greater demands on Europeans and Germans for cost-sharing and the increased use of European troops.

Berlin can’t afford to wait

Berlin can’t afford to wait for whatever demands will be forthcoming from the White House. The Merkel government would be better advised to formulate its own policy and expectations vis-à-vis German-American cooperation. In that respect, the focal point of that relationship can no longer be the support of American hegemony. It must be centered on readiness to create a multi-polar world order that also takes national interests into account.

That applies, above all, to relations with Russia and the question of whether Russia’s legitimate security interests should take a backseat to – as the historian Michael Stürmer calls it – the “highly dangerous and simultaneously hollow” expansion of NATO to include Georgia and the Ukraine.