Washington “Ordered” a Georgian War?

On the eve of the summit of leaders from NATO countries in Brussels, political scientists are trying to guess what kind of plan Washington devised to get Georgia into the alliance. Countries from Old Europe are still wary of admitting into their company a country with a reputation of aggression and an inadequate president. Perhaps Saakashvili’s American patrons will base their plan on the precedent from half a century ago, when NATO admitted West Germany. In the meantime, just in case, the White House isn’t ruling out the possibility of a new war in the Caucasus-Black Sea region.

After Germany was defeated in World War II, it was divided into occupation zones among the victorious countries, and then its territory was split into two independent countries – West Germany and East Germany. Afterward, West Germany joined NATO, and after nearly forty years East Germany automatically became part of NATO, losing by that time its status of a subject of international law.

Now that Georgia lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it is very reminiscent of West Germany in 1955. And it is quite possible that Georgia’s path to join NATO will not involve the notorious MAP, but rather go along West Germany’s beaten track. That way NATO could afford to show unlimited respect and support for Georgia’s territorial integrity, and simultaneously begin to intensively prepare Georgia to join its ranks, even though Georgia is in a state of military confrontation with sovereign Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Apparently, officials from NATO countries are seriously considering the possibility of allowing Georgia to join NATO with the territory that’s still under the control of Tbilisi, in the meantime implying that the sovereign Abkhazia and South Ossetia will “automatically” become a part of NATO if at some point in the future their conflict with Georgia will be resolved in favor of the latter. If NATO strategists really harbor such hopes, then making those hopes a reality will take not forty years, as was the case with West and East Germany, but no less than one hundred and forty years.

In this context, it seems rather strange that German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the day that Russia recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia unequivocally stated that the cooperation of NATO with Georgia should be not only continued but increased. And yet Germany isn’t in a hurry to admit militant Georgia into NATO, and also cautions the other NATO members against haste in providing Georgia with a “NATO guide”.

Therefore, it’s most likely that there will be a discussion in Brussels about increasing NATO’s partnership with Georgia only in certain areas, in order to – at least formally –pull up the candidate to the required standards. And it’s obvious that Tbilisi falls short of those standards. A progress report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) titled “Georgia: The Risks of Winter” provides a detailed and systematized description of Georgia’s main problems and weaknesses.

The report’s authors note that postwar Georgia’s politics and economics are closely related, and Tbilisi must first restore stability to promote and encourage foreign investment. ICG believes that the government should provide better social services, create a truly independent judicial system, eliminate corruption at the highest level, prevent violations of property rights, provide the media with greater freedom, make significant changes to the electoral code, and allocate a part of presidential powers to legislative authorities and the government. According to the report, President Saakashvili recently acknowledged the need for more substantial and faster reforms, but so far these reforms have largely addressed only the judicial system and the media.

Indeed, clearing out the debris and abates of Georgian democracy is a difficult and lengthy process. But Tbilisi authorities want to join NATO now! George W. Bush’s administration is in a hurry as well, because so much has been invested in Georgia and Bush’s pet, Saakashvili. But here is obstinate Europe, furrowing its brow. So it seems that the American president (in a Texas manner) decided to hurry up Europe by using imaginary threats to small and fluffy Georgia from a large and vicious Russia. And…”ordered” a three-month war.

Just the other day, Bush approved an order on measures to protect “against loss or damage from war risks … for trade in the Black Sea.” The document authorizes the U.S. Secretary of Transportation to use special funds to provide insurance for American trade vessels that enter the Black Sea. The coverage is effective for 90 days. The document signed by the by Head of the White House states, “The Secretary of Transportation is directed to bring the approval to the immediate attention of all U.S.-flag vessel operators.”

The document doesn’t explain the reasons why the U.S. President authorized to provide war-risk insurance to American trade vessels in the Black Sea. Perhaps this is another sign of Bush’s problems with geography? The Black Sea is not the Gulf of Aden; we haven’t seen any filibusters around here. So for what war is Washington preparing?