Obama’s Four Phantoms

On the 20th, the first President of black origin in the United States takes on an outlook of the same color. With his intelligence and competence he would seem to have the situation under control. But ahead he has at least four phantoms.

First: the inheritance of Bush. It is a heavy package but one which Obama will be able to undo with his shrewdness. The “phantom” Bush imposed was an ultraconservative ideology at the helm that translated into major internal intolerance and the intensification of international disorder. He left Obama a disparaged country, two wars (Iraq and Afghanistan) and the recession.

Second: the phantom of Obama himself. He will not be able to do everything that he offered during the campaign (universal health care, investment in infrastructure, clean energy, etc.) when finances looked better. The disillusioning will occur quickly. It will be necessary for him “to concentrate” his plan for government on the most important and convincing aspects such that his plan of action suits the conditions of the moment.

Third: the recession. As Obama has repeated this week, this is the worst crisis since the great depression of the 30s.

Everyone is permitted to suspect, furthermore, that we have not yet hit the bottom. While unemployment is already almost three million people, Obama offers to create the same number of jobs. It isn’t clear how he will be able to achieve that. The fiscal deficit will be at least three times bigger than that of 2008; with its 1,200 trillion dollars, it is the biggest since the Second World War as a proportion of GNP (8.3%). These figures do not take into account Obama’s package. This could be an uncontrollable contributing factor of future hyperinflation and the depression of the dollar. Will better times come?

Fourth: The United States against the world. Far from contributing to the relaxation of international tensions, Bush intensified them. Maybe Tom Shannon from the State Department, representative to Latin America, was the exception; in that region pragmatism and realpolitik prevailed. These are the blessings of marginality. The reiterated promise of Obama that diplomacy will take command –and not weapons- has its test of fire in the Middle East conflict.

Hillary Clinton recently emphasized in the Senate committee for her ratification that she will look for a fair and lasting peace agreement between Palestinians and Israelis. If this is to happen, diplomacy will be key. In this respect, she would be dealing with the narrow position of putting all eggs in one basket (Israel), the blockade of Gaza and the conflicts between the Palestinians. The transcendental requirement for an “agreement” requires that the actors converse and negotiate. This involves, logically, not only the Israeli government (and others in the region) but all the Palestinian representatives (that is to say, not only Fatah but Hamas also). If this phantom can be overcome by Obama, history will be made.

Finally, Latin America. As Richard Lagos has said, the agenda is vast: commerce, an international financial architecture, climate change, immigration, renewable energy, the drug trade and the fight against organized crime. Perhaps the region isn’t a “phantom”, but in this agenda, there is plenty of fabric to cut and space to move forward into.