Obama’s Wars

“Learning from the Iraq mission means learning to win.” This is the motto of the U.S. military for the battle of Afghanistan. More troops are being sent to the Hindu Kush and Pashtuns are being wooed.

At the very beginning of his time in office, the new president met with one of his most important generals. David Petraeus, current commander of the U.S. Central Command, reported to Barack Obama on the situations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both wars had been initiated by George W. Bush, but Obama wants to end them without having to give up on the U.S. mission to fight terror.

The situation in Afghanistan worsens every day. Now, more U.S. soldiers die in Afghanistan than in Iraq and the United States is planning to increase forces by 20,000 – 30,000. It is still unclear how many of the then 80,000 troops will be coming from the U.S. and how many from Europe.

Two independently published studies describe how serious the situation in the Hindu Kush really is. In January, the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London cautioned against a failure in Afghanistan. “Only quick and resolute action can prevent a further deterioration of the military situation,” assesses the American think tank. IISS chief executive John Chipman states: “The Western intervention in Afghanistan is faltering.”

Obama now has a new strategy for Afghanistan: more soldiers are meant to protect the population more effectively against violence, since every bomb and every assassination undermines the authority of the government in Kabul. In addition, the tasks for the military will be decreased. Most likely, soldiers will not have to fight al-Qaida, rebellious Pashtuns, the Taliban, drug lords, and smugglers all at the same time anymore. It is planned to win over Pashtun tribes for the fight against Islamic fundamentalists.

The United States wants to radically reduce its troops in Iraq to concurrently increase the numbers in Afghanistan. The military complained under the Bush administration that Afghanistan was being neglected. Behind closed doors, it was agreed that the challenge in Afghanistan was much bigger than in Iraq. During his election campaign, Obama had already denounced the war in Iraq as a “distraction from the actual threats” in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He also announced a withdrawal of troops from Iraq within 18 months.

The president also discussed Pakistan with Petraeus. This is where the Taliban and terrorists retreat; training camps and weapon depots are located in the tribal areas along the border to Afghanistan. Under the Bush administration, the U.S. army’s last missile drop attacked several targets in Pakistan. Pakistan protested against the violation of its sovereign rights, and the relationship between both states deteriorated. “Afghanistan and Pakistan have, in many ways, merged into a single problem set,” Petraeus recently declared. Obama is now determined to be on friendly terms with the government in Islamabad again.

Obama and his advisers also want to change their strategy in Afghanistan. Bush and his administration had always supported the Afghan president Hamid Karzai, although he has long lost the backing from his people and is controversial even amongst his own tribe, the Pashtuns. Outside the city borders, tribal elders, warlords, and Taliban commanders have the power. Rumors from the White House and the Pentagon say that American diplomats are looking for a replacement for Kazai.

Concerning foreign affairs, Obama has already broken with the policy of his predecessor. He gave his first interview of his presidency to the Arabic news channel Al-Arabiya. His message was clear: America communicates with Muslims again. Barack Obama also announced the closure of Guantanamo and a long-term withdrawal from Iraq.

In Iraq, General Petraeus has improved the security situation by changing his strategy. American soldiers patrol together with Iraqis, they have handed over the responsibility for control stations, and have sought allies among Sunni militia. The edited army handbook to combat rebellion now defines the soldiers’ task as “armed social work.” In some regions, the Allied Forces have already completely turned over the responsibility for security to the Iraqis.

Now, Petraeus’ strategy is to be applied to Afghanistan. The 56-year old general, who received his Ph.D. in Political Science from an Ivy League university, supports a close collaboration with local potentates. However, Iraq and Afghanistan can only be compared conditionally. On his first visit to the Pentagon on Wednesday, the president learned once more that the mission in Afghanistan could last much longer and claim even more victims. “We’re going to have some difficult decisions we’re going to have to make surrounding Iraq and Afghanistan, most immediately,” Obama said afterwards. His “we” also included the NATO partners. No later than February, at the Security Conference in Munich, will Europe find out what exactly the new U.S. government is expecting from their allies.