U.S. Intelligence Obtains Threatening Results

Russia Puts a Stick in America’s Foreign Policy Wheel

The newly appointed U.S. director of national intelligence, Dennis Blair, presented the annual threat assessment report prepared by all of the 17 national intelligence-gathering agencies to the Senate Select Intelligence Committee. The conclusion of the American intelligence agencies is that “Russia has been trying to put sticks in our wheels at any opportunity,” but the economic crisis “is probably causing Russia to do some reconsidering.”

With details – “Ъ” Washington staff reporter Dmitri Sidorov

The Senate Select Intelligence Committee did not “interrogate” the recently appointed U.S. director of national intelligence and retired U.S. Navy Admiral Dennis Blair very long. The open hearing lasted about two hours and the closed hearing even less. Despite Mr. Blair’s extensive experience with U.S. intelligence (see “Ъ” January 12th article), the senators kept in mind that he has been at his new post for only ten days.

The annual threat assessment report contains situation analysis for practically every region of the world. This time the Senate’s greatest interest was Iran’s nuclear development program.

The Dem. Senator Evan Bayh asked a straightforward question: “When will Iran obtain nuclear weapons?”

Admiral Blair’s answer was as frank as possible at the open hearing: “If the Iranians continue enrichment of uranium at this rate, they can achieve the technical possibility of developing nuclear weapons in 2010, or even within this year, but it might also occur in 2015.”

This announcement from the new director of the U.S. intelligence contradicts last year’s threat assessment report presented to the Senate committee by Mr. Blair’s predecessor, Michael McConnell. At that time, Mr. McConnell stated that Iran had stopped its military nuclear program.

“Of course Tehran stopped this program, because they finished it,” joked one of the “Ъ” sources who has close ties to U.S. intelligence, hinting that the wrong conclusions were made in last year’s report.

The new data about Iran’s nuclear development program puts rigid terms on achieving any kind of a bilateral agreement with Tehran, which is what the Obama administration wants to do. Almost every “Ъ” analyst believes that the White House has no more than a year to a year and a half to accomplish any kind of progress in negotiating the termination of Iran’s nuclear program.

Admiral Blair assessed Russia’s relations with Iran a bit enigmatically: “They [the Russian government -“Ъ”] do not want Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, but they do want something from Iran.” Exactly what they want Dennis Blair did not explain and the senators did not inquire, evidently understanding what he was saying. One of the sources of “Ъ” who has close ties to the Senate concluded that “Blair was hinting about Moscow’s desire to see Tehran as an ally in opposition to U.S. interests within the region.”

This assumption was indirectly confirmed by the statement of the U.S. intelligence director: “Russia has been trying to put a stick in our wheels at any opportunity.” This statement was made in reference to the Kyrgyz decision to close the U.S. military base in Manas. That, according to the admiral, makes him feel “extreme disappointment,” not so much in the actions of Bishkek, but Moscow’s position on the closing.

“To be honest, I am disappointed with the role of Russia in talks over Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan. It seems that Russia is not playing a useful role here,” declared Blair, “though Russia says that generally the U.S. operations in Afghanistan and their role in the fight with terrorism meet its interests.” As he noted, in Russia’s actions, “there is a sort of ambiguity” concerning these issues.

Nevertheless, despite the problems in the relations between Moscow and Washington, the U.S. intelligence director believes that the two countries should find a common point of view. This coincides with the views of the new administration. However, Dennis Blair believes that “it is necessary to be alert in case something bad happens and we are forced to protect our national interests.”

What the admiral meant by that remains unknown.

Estimating the development of the situation in Russia, Dennis Blair came to the conclusion that the economic crisis may cause them (the Russian government -“Ъ”) to reconsider their actions. “Russia has made a contract with its citizens offering ‘prosperity and a strong Russia’ in return for pretty sharp limitations on personal freedom,” explained the chief of U.S. intelligence.

Dmitri “Ъ” Sidorov, Washington