Climate: Obama Under Pressure

On the topic of climate, as with all the rest, Barack Obama is a formidable orator. Tuesday at the U.N. there was no better advocate for the fight against global warming. Once again, his key argument was to underscore the contrast with the preceding administration: “I am proud to say that the United States has done more to promote clean energy and reduce carbon pollution in the last eight months than at any other time in our history.” Certainly. But the world is awaiting actions.

It has been three months since the Copenhagen Summit, and the pressure is mounting. In spite of the expectations created by Obama, the United States could well be the principal obstacle to a treaty replacing the Kyoto Protocol, which expires at the end of 2012.

The reason is simple: The American Senate is not anxious to vote on a bill, reducing CO2 emissions, that was approved by the House of Representatives. The Republicans are all against and the Democrats are divided. The fight against global warming will suffer from the cumulative delay of health insurance reform. Lacking a vote from Congress, Obama will find himself in Copenhagen without a mandate for negotiation.

During this time, the other great polluters are moving forward. Europe leads the pack with its energy-climate package adopted under the French presidency. The Japan of new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is now following its lead. Even China, now the top global polluter, and exempted from Kyoto because it was a developing economy, is showing proof of admirable good will. President Hu Jintao yesterday committed to “significantly” reducing the intensity of carbon gas from his economic growth. All that’s left is to know how much.

Up to now the most recalcitrant in the United States have entrenched themselves behind China’s apathy in order to drag their feet. As for the Europeans, they hesitate to criticize Obama so as not to disrupt his efforts towards still-skeptical public opinion.

As the date of the Copenhagen meeting nears, it is going to become necessary to up the pressure so that the United States’ long-awaited turning point translates into international commitments. This is the objective of the November summit proposed by Nicolas Sarkozy. But, even so, it will not be easy, as the Head of State hopes, to “stop the role-playing, the speeches that are not followed by results, and the diplomatic games, in order to put concrete proposals on the table.”