The Search for Compromise

The main phenomenon of the last year on the international stage has to be China’s 9 percent economic growth against the backdrop of general decline. Evidently, this year China will overtake the U.S. as the first economy of the world. I think that is exactly what will happen in the following years. The rise of China and indicators in other Asian countries, including 6 percent growth in Indonesia, 5 percent growth by the largest eastern developing economies, show that the trend observed in previous years — the center of the modern world shifting from the West to East — is a fundamental trend for the start of this decade and perhaps the entire century.

The most important event of 2009 was Barack Obama’s victory in the U.S. presidential election and the new stage of Russia-U.S. relations. A year ago, it seemed that the idea of weapons reduction was doomed for failure. However, today it already looks quite different. Major agreements are close to being signed. Americans are not stepping up plans for a missile defense system or NATO expansion, which just a year ago was considered a decided issue.

Among the negative developments of international relations, it is worth noting the emergence of another nuclear state — North Korea — which poses a grave challenge to the world. There is serious potential for continued conflict associated with the two wars being waged by the United States, in Iraq and Afghanistan, with no victory in sight for either one. It seems that the result of military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan will be a long-term destabilization of the region, which could also pose a threat to the security of Russia.

Of the most important events in Russia’s foreign policy, I would like to mention the establishment of the Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. These countries were able to reach an agreement, which begins January 1, 2010. This is the first time since the Soviet years that the integration processes have resulted in binding agreements.