Fewer Murders in the United States. Why?

The number of homicides in the United States continued to diminish in 2009. In big cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Washington, the number of murders reached its lowest level since the 1960s. In the American capital, known in the past as the “murder capital,” there were 143 homicides last year; in 1993, there were 454. In Los Angeles, there were 314 homicides in 2009, 169 fewer than in 2006.

In the United States as a whole, the annual rate of homicides per 100,000 inhabitants fell from 9.8 in 1991 to 5.4 in 2008, and all indications are that it will be even lower in 2009. This significant decrease in the number of murders raises many questions, not only about its causes but also about the interpretations being applied to the same trend here in Canada.

For example, we often hear that the decline in the number of homicides in Canada is explained by the ever-tightening control on the sale and possession of firearms. This explanation perhaps seems to hold true, but in reality, it is a caricature. Since 1991, the homicide rate dropped faster in the U.S. (45 percent versus 32 percent in Canada), where firearms are still sold freely. The homicide rate remains obviously higher for our neighbors to the south, but the gap is shrinking; at the start of the 1990s, there were seven times more murders in the U.S. than here; in 2008, there were only three times as many.

In the United States, supporters of the death penalty feel that it is able to curb the murderous impulses of certain individuals. However, the decline of executions over the last several years has not resulted in an increase in homicides — in fact, just the opposite is true. In New York State and Washington D.C., where the number of murders has markedly decreased, there has not been a single execution for more than three decades.

In New York and Los Angeles, the mayor and chief of police, respectively, immediately took credit for the decrease in violent crime. It is possible that the improvement of certain police tactics and staff increases have contributed, in some places, to the improved situation. But again, we must avoid simplistic conclusions.

Several criminologists believe that the main factor at play is an aging population. Criminal violence is primarily the result of young men. As their numbers decrease, fewer violent crimes are committed.

Other elements, no doubt, play a role. Criminologist Marc Ouimet of the University of Montreal speculated that following the 9/11 attacks, increased security measures in many public areas have had a dissuasive effect as well.

Furthermore, according to Ouimet, contrary to popular belief, violent crimes decrease during times of recession. As many people are affected by the economic slowdown, this creates a climate of resignation. On the other hand, periods of strong growth tend to produce a feeling of frustration among those whom prosperity leaves behind — frustration that generates violence.

For several years, Ouimet has followed the evolution of the homicide rate in Canada compared to that of the United States. He noticed that when the levels were different, the rates have still followed the same upward or downward trends in both countries for more than a century. In other words, besides legislation and police tactics, there are other — deeper and poorly understood — factors that Canada and the U.S. have in common. This parallels the countries of France and Great Britain, where the number of murders has likewise declined for several years.