A Senatorial Election Shakes Up U.S. Politics

Earthquake! I am talking not about the earthquake in Haiti, but rather about the earthquake in Massachusetts. This earthquake is political, not natural. On January 19th, Scott Brown, the GOP candidate competing to fill Ted Kennedy’s vacant Senate seat, came up from behind to deliver a shocking defeat to Democratic candidate Martha Coakley.

Readers in China may wonder why, given that the U.S. Senate has 100 seats, is all the fuss over just one of them? The simple answer is that the outcome of this race is an indication of national trends. Massachusetts is a Democratic Party stronghold, just as Texas is a stronghold for the GOP. In Massachusetts, Democrats outweigh Republicans three to one. The state frequently elects Republicans to state-wide positions. But when it comes to national elections, the state’s electorate is one of the Democratic Party’s most reliable supporters. Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972.

This Senate race was a competition to fill a seat that Edward Kennedy had occupied for half a century. Kennedy’s widow strongly supported Martha Coakley. Martha Coakley is well-regarded and well-known as Massachusetts’s attorney general. Her opponent Scott Brown was an inconspicuous state senator. Prior to this Senate race, he was probably best known to the public for his nude appearance in Cosmopolitan Magazine. One month ago, Martha Coakley had a 30 percent lead in the polls. If at that time you had asserted that the nobody Scott Brown would win, people would have thought you mentally deranged.

Then, in the week prior to the election, the winds changed. Every poll suddenly indicated that Brown had nearly broken even with Coakley. The Democratic Party scrambled to get its act together. Prior to voting day, both former president Bill Clinton and President Obama made special trips to Massachusetts in support of Coakley’s campaign, but it was all for naught. In the end, not only did Brown win, he won with over 50 percent of the vote, an astonishing victory.

The results of the Massachusetts Senate race emerged one day before Obama’s one-year anniversary in office. Many argue that the election served as a referendum on Obama’s policy initiatives. It’s the strongest blow to his policies since coming into office. As the economy struggles to recover and government deficits continue to rise, Obama has made passing universal healthcare legislation one of his highest priorities. The late Kennedy was one of the chief advocates for passing universal healthcare legislation. However, it appears as though the public is reluctant to stomach more hikes in government spending.

The GOP saw their opportunity to plot a comeback. The healthcare bill needs 60 or more votes in the Senate in order to pass. The Democrats had 60 votes, but Brown’s victory changed everything overnight. With 41 votes, the Republicans can use a filibuster to block healthcare reform and a host of Obama’s other initiatives. More importantly, midterm elections take place this November. Brown’s victory indicates that the GOP may take back Congress, a repeat performance of the 1994 conservative revolution.

Brown’s path to victory merits closer study. After the Republicans lost in last year’s presidential election, the party was mired in internal strife and general disarray. Brown is the first Republican to emerge as the party’s savior; he could one day be the party’s presidential candidate. His miraculous surge to victory was thanks to personal political savvy. He captured the electorate’s suspicion of big government and its distaste for high taxes, turning this vote into a referendum on universal healthcare legislation.

It’s important to note that in Massachusetts more than half of voters are registered as independents; there are more independents than there are Republicans. Independents tend to be fiscally conservative, opposed to wanton government spending, but they usually do not identify with the religious right. Obama rode to victory on the backs of the independents.

Since Bush’s presidency, the Republican Party has been dominated by the religious right, alienating independents. Brown has returned to the Republican Party’s tradition of fiscal conservatism and secularism, pointing the way to the GOP’s recovery. In his acceptance speech, Brown said, “Tonight the independent voice of Massachusetts has spoken.” Clearly, he has taken the independents as his base, distancing himself from the extreme right. This type of Republican, shaking the influence of the religious right and forging an alliance between moderate conservatives and independents, may redraw the political map of the U.S., bringing about a rebirth of the Republican Party.