U.S. Plans For A “Post-Afghanistan War Era” in South Asia

Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao recently published an article called “U.S. plans for a ‘Post-Afghanistan War Era’ in South Asia.” The article states that on February 25, India’s Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir held talks in New Delhi. These talks represented two old enemies in Asia working under the pressure of U.S. President Obama to try to find reconciliation and new paths for development. For Obama’s political career, Afghanistan has to be successful; there is no room for failure. For this reason, he will not only concentrate all of America’s military strength, but also use a lifetime’s worth of political moves to strive for success.

A selection of the article is below:

On February 25, India’s Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir met in New Delhi for a day of talks, which represented two old enemies in Asia working under the pressure of U.S. President Obama to try to reach an understanding and find new paths for development.

This path was already launched by former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. But in 2007, he gave the power of the military to Kayani; later, in August 2008, the Indian embassy in Kabul suffered a terrorist attack, and then in November, terrorists from Pakistan infiltrated terrorist groups in India and attacked a five-star hotel in Mumbai, creating a terrifying event. From that point on, even though Washington tells both sides to use restraint, the two countries remain in a hostile state that resembles neither war nor peace.

In the first month Obama came to office, Washington’s foreign policy moved its focus from Iraq to Afghanistan. The American government abandoned the Afpak (Afghanistan and Pakistan) anti-terrorism strategy last March and then sent limited reinforcements to the battlefield in Afghanistan. It has decided to strive to end military operations in the new Afghanistan War by August 2011. For Obama’s political career, Afghanistan has to be successful; there is no room for failure. For this reason, he will not only concentrate all of America’s military strength, but also use a lifetime’s worth of political moves to strive for success.

Middle East expert of the Brookings Institution, Michael O’Hanlon, and U.S. citizen of Afghan descent Hassina Sherjan jointly wrote a new book called “Toughing It Out in Afghanistan.” The book states that Obama has a lot of problems in the Afghanistan War, but if he is able to eliminate the Taliban resistance in one area after another and establish peace and prosperity, then by 2013 the whole situation will improve.

Pakistan plays a key role in this war on terrorism, but the Pakistani Army (especially the three main intelligence agencies) has always focused its strategy on resisting an attack from India.

The famous American journalist and president and CEO of the New America Foundation, Steve Coll, believes that events that happened in 2009 caused a turning point. The Taliban carried out 84 suicide bombings in Pakistan that year, killing 1,300 people, 80 percent of whom were civilians and more than 10 percent of whom were military and police. Last year in October, the Taliban attacked the army headquarters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. From that point on, the Pakistani Army has changed its focus.

Coll says that high-ranking Pakistani officers might have started to realize that they need to revise their standpoints on America and the Taliban. They are changing the relationship with America so as to be not so sweet that they would be eaten whole, but also not so bitter that they would be spat out.

In November of last year, Obama wrote a confidential letter and made National Security Advisor James Jones personally hand it to Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari.

Jones’s more important mission was to have talks with Pakistan’s Army Chief Pervez Ashfaq Kayani and the chief’s three subordinate intelligence agencies. He was supposed to make them accept money and technical assistance from the United States Central Intelligence Agency, as well as use coercion and incentives to convince them to cooperate with the United States. The recent capture of the second ring-leader, Abdul Ghani Baradar, Taliban’s shadow governor in Afghanistan, is a result of proactive cooperation between America and Pakistan.

Successfully fighting terror in Afghanistan hinges on whether or not the Obama administration can stop the Taliban resurgence. If this trend cannot be stopped by August of next year, then the Afghanistan War will become a second Vietnam, and maybe there will be another 9/11 terrorist attack tragedy. It will be impossible to ensure the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, and the Western world will be at a disadvantage in its “Holy War” with Islamic extremism.

Obama is good at being flexible and taking advantage of a situation. Currently, he is working against many enemies with regard to his economic plans. If the Democrats are defeated in the November elections, he might have to back down from the Afghanistan War and wait for the next chance. He might have to soften his approach toward the Taliban.

Some scholars believe America lacks the ability to eradicate the power of the Taliban, meaning the U.S. must rely on some kind of pact made between Kayani’s three intelligence agencies and the Taliban. The pact ensures that after the American army pulls out of Afghanistan, it will not become an Islamic anti-American jihadist terrorist headquarters.

On February 23, eight Pakistani reporters came to Chicago University to participate in a forum about new developments in relations between Pakistan and America. Classmates of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, as well as the famous economic professor and Nobel Prize winner Roger Myerson, also participated in the dialogue. Reporters reflected that public opinion in Pakistan is rather complex, but overall they hoped that America would not walk away from any problems it encountered as it did in the past, and furthermore asked Washington to continue to exert pressure on New Delhi to keep the peace in South Asia.