Will we return to the negotiation table? Will there be another armed confrontation? And who’s guilty, anyway? (The other side, clearly, right?)
1. What is the essence of the crisis about building permits in Ramat Shlomo in East Jerusalem?
Those words are too lofty; there isn’t really any substance here. The central meaning of every negotiation between Israel and the Palestinians is the ability to create a crisis which will thwart the negotiation, or to blame the other side for creating such a crisis. That’s how the goal is achieved.
2. What is the goal?
To maintain the status quo, of course.
3. So why do we call the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians “proximity talks”?
Because since the beginning of the ‘90s, the two sides have not been farther from agreement.
4. What happens now?
The issue of East Jerusalem will fade a bit and then the “contacts” will begin. At first, the public on both sides will express limited opinions. Within about two weeks, the matter will receive attention, but only on the “dead pages.”
5. What are the “dead pages”?
That is the name the press uses to refer to the section of the newspaper in which the obituaries are posted, and in which other less important or less interesting news is usually posted as well.
6. But what will happen in the negotiations, assuming that the issue of building in Ramat Shlomo is solved?
The negotiations will be thrown into deep crisis and will demand extensive intervention by the American government. This is clear, because this is what has happened in every interaction that Israel has ever had with the Arab world, especially the Palestinians.
7. And will the negotiations be straightforward, in the end?
Surely. Direct talks will open, which will mark a historic feat.
8. And what will the direct talks accomplish?
Unfortunately, nothing. A few weeks or months after they begin, a severe security escalation will occur, which will be completely the fault of the Palestinians, the Arabs, the Iranians or all of them together.
9. And then what will happen?
The negotiations will stop.
10. And how will we get out of it?
After the security escalation is resolved, which may or may not end with an armed confrontation, there will be massive pressure from both sides to “return to the negotiating table.” And since you ask, yes, they will return.
11. What for?
To prove that they do not strive for confrontation and, incidentally, to cast the blame on the opposing side.
12. And in the end, what will happen?
There will be elections.
13. Where?
What does it matter? In any case the contacts will stop before and after the elections.
14. I think I understand. You can stop driving me up the wall now.
You want me to stop? Make them stop.
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