The Iraqi Elections and the American Withdrawal

Two weeks after the elections in Iraq, the political scene is still murky with the intensified competition between the prime minister’s party, the Nation of Law Alliance, and the former prime minister Ayad Allawi’s party, the Iraqi List, which has pervaded all levels of Iraqi society, and the closing of the gap in the number of seats the two parties have won. More so, it is falling in line with the security situation which was described by U.S. CENTCOM commander General David Petraeus as still fragile and prone to setback.

What has been remarkable in the past few days is the distinctive prominence of the lead parties and the advancement of the Iraqi List under the Ayad Allawi’s leadership to close the gap in votes between it and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s party. There is also a near perfect tie in votes shared by the other parties, which will soon tip the scales of power in Iraq because of the inability of any of the parties to shape the next government, which will be borne by a painful C-section, because of the absence of a majority vote among any of them as stipulated by the constitution. The Iraqi parliamentary elections were characterized by political over-congestion, exclusions, violence, the dismantling of former parties and a new political lineup and open coalitions, along with widespread turnout among Sunni Arabs.

As was expected, the Iraqi voter once casted his vote, with a shorter and less alienating lineup than in the last elections in 2005, although the results of the election confirmed what I suspected in my previous column on this page: The Iraqi voter once again based his decision on sectarian, ethnic, regional and loyal interests, and did not vote clearly or definitively for Iraq as a nation, state, and sovereignty.

There was another aim in these elections, which lay in struggles and competitions, unofficial but not hidden from anyone, between the two main powers holding Iraq’s future in their grasp. America, as it retreats and disappears from its bases, remains far away from the cities and is implementing plans to decrease its manpower to less than 100,000, and it is expected that this number will then fall to 50,000 at the beginning of next September. And then there is Iran, which has an influential hand in Iraqi politics and has announced on more than one occasion Tehran’s readiness to fill the vacuum of power left in the land of the Tigris and Euphrates. It seems that the secret struggle in Iraq between America and Iran has two opposing dimensions: America has a desire for a moderate Iraqi government that would essentially be an ally in the region, and at the same time, it is getting ready to draw down its forces there, as Iran endeavors to keep Iraq as Iran’s own a strategic position that will not threaten its stability or security.

This is accompanied by an increase in the Iraqi push toward giving foreign companies, especially American companies, special privileges for drilling its abundant oil, which recalls discussion of the conspiracy theory that oil was one of the reasons for the invasion, and all the while numerous upcoming decisions will determine the identity, security and future of Iraq, as well the security and future of the region as a whole.

Now, the independent high ministry is scrutinizing the elections in Iraq’s parliament, which has 325 representatives. There are 15 seats designated for minorities as a way to compensate them since they would otherwise be marginalized in representation. The picture has started to focus and the dust of the elections has begun to subside, and in a short period of time, the results of the elections will be announced. The near-tie in votes shared by the two main parties, the Nation of Law Alliance under the leadership of al-Maliki and the Iraqi List party under the leadership of Allawi, might raise accusations of election fraud because of the delay in announcing the results of the elections and the stark closeness between the two parties. There are expectations that the National Iraqi Alliance, which includes many Shiite parties, will get approximately 67 seats in parliament, and 38 seats will go to the Kurdistan Alliance. All in all, these five major blocs will form the new Iraqi government through alliances, concessions and a most certainly painful birth.

Recently, there have been leaks in Washington over the possibility of delaying the withdrawal of American forces and slowing the decrease of troops. This is especially apparent after American Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s announcement that there will be a major collapse in the situation of Iraq, before he recommended that the time schedule for the withdrawal be delayed. US CENTCOM commander General David Petraeus’s announcement a few days ago at a congressional hearing that the security situation remains fragile in Iraq, and that Washington still has plans to decrease the number of troops to 50,000 at the end of next summer in preparation for total withdrawal in 2011, further confirms the American push to slow the withdrawal. Both the American leaks and al-Maliki himself have hinted that because of the postponement of the withdrawal’s schedule, there might be a need to keep a base for an additional brigade in Iraq, while shrinking forces in other areas. The addition of such bases is a major issue in relation to the facilitation of communication with the Iraqis, and it is something we are considering doing, with much thought and planning beforehand, if we really think that the situation in Iraq is fragile, as it is in a specific area in the north. So in all there will be six main American bases that will both help to provide American communications officers to regional governments and bring the situation in Northern Iraq under control after the troop drawdown next August.

Therefore, there are many decisions and challenges that await the state of Iraq, the Iraqi people and the entire region. Questions remain, however: Will there really be a complete and total withdrawal and a delivery of Iraq into the hands of America’s opponents both inside and outside of Iraq? What about the balance of power, national interests and oil? There are many questions whose answers hold important consequences for Iraq and the region as a whole, and in the coming years they will form the political scene, with all of its components and players, in Iraq, the region and America.

By a writer from Kuwait