A War in the Near Future

I see an imminent war in the near future, although I have no idea about its scale. The following evidence supports my prediction:

Our country, Iran, has been involved in a wide-scale conflict every 30 years, on average. Without mentioning the Iraq War, WWI and WWII were among the major disasters of the past 88 years. The following conflicts also have resulted in significant military expenditure: the invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union and the United States; the military aggression of the Taliban, from Pakistan to Afghanistan; and the fall of Burhanuddin Rabbani’s government. Iran and Afghanistan had a tense relationship during the Taliban era and were even on the verge of war.

Additional conflicts involving Iran were the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq and the U.S. strike against Iraq. The military cost of invading Iraq was over $3 trillion; it goes without saying that Iraq’s big neighbor was affected.

The wars between the Arab nations and Israel have always threatened the security of the region, and Iran has always been affected. For example, during the 22-days war on Gaza, Iran’s global diplomatic and media initiative resulted in an international uprising, defending the rights of the Gazans. The Dhofar war in Oman was started mainly for land expansion reasons, but we can also count it as a military exercise for Iran.

The idealistic views of the top and middle management of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the pioneering ideology of Ayatollah Khomeini have disappointed the West. The Islamist movements of Iran have clashed with Western civilization, which is now considering a military option against the religious intentions of Iran. Iran’s geopolitical location and political and economic position has always been lucrative for the world powers. Why should we think that the super powers would tolerate a Shiite clergy ruling this broad and important land!

The efforts of our internal and external enemies have been unsuccessful over the past three decades, especially this year, so they have a motive for military aggression. The supreme leader traveled safely to Kurdistan and ended some tribal conflicts in that region. The supreme leader visited Kurdistan for 10 days, visiting several cities and collaborating closely with the ethnic Kurds of Iran. All the members of the cabinet traveled to Kurdistan without problems. Abdolmalek Rigi, who threatened the security of the Sistan and Baluchistan provinces for the past decade, was captured; even his Kyrgyz bodyguards, who were supposed to take him to a U.S base in Kyrgyzstan, were surprised and had only the chance to watch what looked like a police movie scene.

The Green Movement crisis ended on December 30 and February 11 in the streets of Tehran. The foreign think tanks and their satellite allies were not able to encourage their followers in further protests. The wide-scale presence of people on Februrary 11 didn’t leave a single Green spot on the streets of Tehran, and the reformists, who were introduced by Americans and Europeans as more rational, were defeated in the election.

The actions of Mr. Karroubi and Mousavi have devastated the face of the reformist parties. The enemy has played all of its cards against Iran; even though it didn’t play well, it did succeed in damaging the government and the revolution. But the truth is that is all they succeeding in doing after all these years, and they are now out of the game because of their hurry. It seems that the revolution had surgery in 2009, and is now healing its wounds.

Obama is prone to rushing to war, due to his character. He has always retreated on the nuclear issue and may go to war with Iran to to make up for his failures and to cover up America’s internal problems. We should not forget that the first American president to authorize the use of a nuclear bomb was a president with very little political experience, who was, surprisingly, elected.

If we consider war to be imminent, we should also predict its trajectory. Where is there a country with enough human resources to fight us? Which country could count on its European and American allies to fight us? Will NATO attack us or the Arab League? The answer is clear. Of our neighbors, Turkey is the only choice for the West; only Turkey and Azerbaijan are NATO members, but Azerbaijan is not able to manage a war.

The Turkish army has been running Turkey for decades and is still capable of overthrowing the Islamist government and attacking us. We should remember that at least two coups by the military were foiled in the past two years, and more than 100 military personnel have been arrested in connection with the attempts.

War is a bad thing, but our ancestors have ridden this horse before to protect our homeland. We will surely leave a bad memory for our enemies if we go to war. We Iranians have never started a war in this century or for the past 57 years, although we must confess that we never had the power to attack any country because of our corrupt leaders.

Nor do we intend to attack any country now, but the fact is that the enemy does not consult with us, and we may lose more than 30 years of our reconstruction efforts in less than a few months. If there is such a probability, we should prepare a wise defense plan. We should unite around our leader, so that the enemy would lose its base in our country.

Any ignorant nation will be punished, and the book of history is filled with red pages.