Arrival of U.S. Aircraft Carrier Will Escalate Sino-American Tensions

It is not known whether the U.S. was involved in the Cheonan incident.* Maybe it will never be known, but either way, the U.S. has delayed the return of South Korea’s military command. Whether Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama’s resignation was forced after disagreements with the U.S. is also unknown. It’s impossible that the U.S. would launch a war against China because of the Cheonan, but the prospect of U.S. aircraft carriers in the Yellow Sea will certainly worsen Sino-American relations. As a superpower, the U.S. is used to showing force. However, this is neither a clever nor effective way to treat its major trade partner and biggest creditor, China.

Picture a monster, the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier U.S.S. George Washington, appearing in China’s gateway, the Yellow Sea. One can imagine what a great threat it would be to China’s national security and the alarm it would cause the Chinese army and people.

When the carrier enters the Yellow Sea, and even if it remains close to South Korea, the Chinese military would certainly monitor it closely, a rare opportunity. The Chinese military — Army, Air Force, Navy — hasn’t experienced actual combat in many years. They have made great strides in the last decade, but remain untested by live combat. It is difficult to predict collisions or other emergencies. But since the ship is entering China’s gateway, it surely has prepared accordingly. The military must be ready and very aware of the U.S. aircraft carrier on its own doorstep.

Are the Chinese afraid of U.S. force? You will find the answer in the Korean War, 60 years ago. Poverty-stricken China, facing a war close to its own territory, decided to send troops to North Korea without hesitation. Despite the heavy price, it didn’t lose to the U.S., which was much stronger than China. Americans cannot forget the war.

What would Americans think if Chinese aircraft carriers appeared near Los Angeles or even New York? The problem is that Americans would never consider others’ feelings. There will be serious consequences if the U.S. ignores China’s.

Who would benefit from the Cheonan incident? Becoming the enemy of 1.3 billion Chinese people is different from imposing sanctions on Cuba, North Korea and Iran. The aircraft carriers appear in China’s gateway. Regardless of explanations from the U.S. and South Korea, it would inevitably arouse anti-American and anti-Korean sentiment. It is not China provoking the U.S. and South Korea; rather, it is the other way around.

Since South Korea and the U.S. insist that North Korea attacked the Cheonan, they should not toy with getting revenge on North Korea. The U.S. has already opened two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a war against Iran is always possible, lacking only Obama’s orders. The U.S.-South Korea military alliance has been operating for many years, and the attack plans for North Korea are updated annually. Since they insist that North Korea was responsible for the Cheonan, why don’t they attack now? Is the U.S. afraid of North Korea’s crude nuclear weapons? Of course not. So, what are they waiting for?

In 1898, the U.S.S. Maine exploded and sank in Havana harbor, off the coast of Cuba. The U.S. insisted that Spain was to blame, and launched the Spanish-American War, eventually winning control of the Philippines and other Spanish territories. Research performed by American scientists in 1975 showed that the Maine exploded because of an overheated boiler, but who still cares?

In August 1965 the U.S. accused North Vietnam of attacking U.S. warships in the Gulf of Tonkin with PT boats. With this excuse, the U.S. escalated the Vietnam War and began bombing North Vietnam ground targets.

When the U.S.S. George Washington appears in the Yellow Sea, it is assumed that Chinese early warning aircraft will pass over the ship, a variety of warships will appear nearby, and submarines will monitor the carrier from below. This is a confrontation between China and the U.S. military. To the Chinese forces, this confrontation is close to real combat exercises. It is unlikely that this would intensify to full-scale war, but the confrontation does show the tension of the G2 between a superpower and a rising power. The confrontation is not only about hard power; it is also a contest at the strategic level. The contest is only one aspect of Sino-U.S. relations. Even if the George Washington doesn’t enter the Yellow Sea, strain would appear in other forms in the future. If events like the Yinhe incident** and the bombing of the Chinese embassy*** happen again, the consequences would not be the same as in the 1990s. China will no longer swallow such insults.

Editor’s notes:

* On March 26, 2010, an explosion sank the ROKS Cheonan. North Korea was implicated by the South Korean government and others.

** In July of 1993, the U.S. government alleged that a Chinese container ship, the Yinhe, was delivering chemical weapons to Iran. A complete inspection revealed no weapons.

*** On May 7, 1999, during the Kosovo War, five U.S. bombs hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese citizens.