Transition in Kabul

Last Tuesday, representatives from 68 countries met in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, to discuss the future of the Asian nation. Known as the “cemetery of empires” for having defeated the English and the Soviets, this rocky territory has been occupied by the United States and its NATO allies for nearly a decade.

In the nine years since the terrorist attacks of 9/11 by al-Qaida, Afghanistan has become a difficult puzzle to solve for White House foreign policy. In contrast with the invasion of Iraq, which was promoted by George W. Bush and the Republicans, Barack Obama’s Democratic administration chose Kabul as its “good” conflict to finish. However, security conditions in the last 18 months have been deteriorating. In the course of this year, 380 international soldiers have died, and it seems that any potential advances continue to be scarce.

The inability of President Hamid Karzai’s government to exercise authority in the majority of the Afghan territory is evident. Entire provinces in the rebellious south are under the control of Taliban warlords, while accusations of corruption and nepotism against Karzai’s clan continue.

Furthermore, it is suspected that the last presidential elections, which assured the reelection of the head of state, were openly fraudulent. In the middle of all this are poorly trained local troops and an anti-subversive U.S. strategy that is failing to produce tangible results.

The outlook for the international community is unclear. Hillary Clinton, head of American diplomacy, asked whether “success is possible.” The results of the Kabul conference confirm the lack of a diplomatic exit: NATO forces will withdraw in 2014 and 50 percent of foreign aid will be managed by Karzai’s government. That is to say, the uniformed Afghans have some three years to become a professional and trained contingent, and the bureaucracy can count on the same timeframe to become capable of administrating the country.

What is certain is that a timeline for the return of sovereignty to Afghanistan remains unconfirmed. Obama has announced a withdrawal of troops for halfway through the next year, and other donor countries are contemplating the same decision due to internal political pressures. For his part, Karzai announced dialogue with the Taliban. It seems the Afghans are defeating another empire.