American Democrats Regain Ground

The possibility of a possible Republican victory should be put into context, Republican Senator John Cornyn emphasizes, mentioned by the Huffington Post: “Even if we controlled the House, unless we controlled the Senate and got 60 votes, we wouldn’t be able to pass any corresponding legislation.”

A survey was enough to revive the speculation around the American mid-term elections, scheduled for November 2, whose results are traditionally unfavorable to the established power. Unfavorable, but not necessarily catastrophic, as the previous polls predicted. The Washington Post, by means of an ABC News poll, criticized the triumphalism shown by the Republicans up until now.

The Democrats would be on their way to regaining their ground. “The Democrats have reduced the Republican advantage by half since the beginning of September regarding why the voters will vote for the candidate on November 2.”* The author emphasizes nevertheless that this recovery runs the risk of not being sufficient, above all when dealing with the most dedicated Republicans. In fact, the poll derived that “three-quarters of Republicans say this year’s elections are more important than most.”

The results of this poll tend, in this case, to demonstrate the efficiency of the democratic campaign strategy, the same that Barack Obama took to the White House in 2008, according to the news site Slate. “Our president, although relaxed for a long time, finally realizes the danger,”* emphasizes the author, although at the same time he refuses to minimize the threat. “There will be a tide. The Republicans will regain seats in the House and the Senate. The issue is knowing the extent of this tide. But it looks set to lose size.”*

Specifically, the author attributes this recovery of popularity to a change of consciousness between the “apathetic Democrats that finally are worried about the elections and have decided to vote.”*

Popular Concern

For the Los Angeles Times, the modest vigor recovered by the Democrats can be measured according to campaign fundraising ($16 million in September, of which a majority came “mostly from low-dollar donors”), as well as the “uncertain effort to return to the polls the thousands of the infrequent and first-time voters.” Having said this, although the popularity level of the president continues to improve, “it stays at a worrisome level for an electoral period.”*

This inflation of the polls should be observed with prudence, declares the Weekly Standard. Citing Gallop, another poll that shows evidence of a clear Republican advantage and predicts a Democratic debacle “worthy of the ‘20s,” the paper foresees that the “two sides are ultimately going to be very well sorted (95 percent or so of Republicans voting Republican; 95 percent of Democrats voting Democratic).” The same analysis comes from the site Politico, which discerns a potentially favorable result for the Democrats in key states like Washington, California and Illinois. And thanks to a “return to a loyal house,”* which “Democratic leaders are convinced will happen and that the Republicans recognize in private.”* As for the rest, the capability of an eventual Republican victory should be tempered, underlines Republican Senator John Cornyn, cited by the Huffington Post: “Even if we controlled the House, unless we controlled the Senate and got 60 votes, we wouldn’t be able to pass any corresponding legislation,” he explains. “We need to keep expectations, again, fairly modest as far as what we can do over the next two years.”

Equal to Jimmy Carter

Between the flow of commentaries after the Washington Post-ABC News poll, historical comparisons began to arise. For the website Salon, “this moment could easily be a mirage.” The author compares these elections with those of 1994, in which the Democratic Party lost its majority in the House. The danger today is greater yet “since the economy is in worse shape.”

More serious still, the British newspaper The Independent sees Barack Obama as a double of Jimmy Carter, the former Democratic president who left power at the end of the ‘70s, beating records of unpopularity. For the author, the common points between both politicians are numerous: “Both can point to notable achievements, … both, beyond argument, are exceptionally intelligent men, … but both have seen their rationality (their ability to see the world not as they would like it to be, but as it is) attacked as weakness.” For the author, “his essential problems arise from the excessive expectations of the U.S. with respect to their president, above all, the economy.”

*Editor’s Note: Original quotation could not be verified.