A Republican Success in November Would Hurt the Re-election of Obama

The announced resurgence of Barack Obama’s Republican opponents in the November 2 elections could create trouble for the president’s reelection in 2012, especially in key states that could fall into the hands of Republican governors.

Aware of these dangers, President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are scouring the United States from east coast to west coast for several weeks, with special attention paid to key states won by Obama in 2008.

But within two weeks of the legislative and local elections, Democrats appear to be poorly placed to maintain their governors in many states. They are trailing by seven points in Ohio and 10 points in Pennsylvania, according to a poll conducted by the specialized website RealClearPolitics.

In these two states hit hard by the economic crisis, a Republican governor could create an updraft for the opposition candidate for the 2012 presidential election.

In total, a dozen seats of governors could pass to the Republican side, according to polls.

“Gubernatorial elections are probably the most crucial,” said Chris Kofinas, Democratic specialist in political strategy. “The reason the White House is campaigning in some of these key states is that they have traditionally been decisive for the election of president and will be again in 2012,”* he said, before stressing that the advantage of the Republicans could turn against them after two years in office.

For Herbert Weinberg, professor of political science at Ohio University, “people do not really care who their governor is when voting in the presidential election. But the governor can often help mobilize support for his party in his state.”*

Political scientist Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute said that during the 2000 presidential election, the Republican governor of Florida was an asset in the game of George W. Bush, when a recount determined the outcome of the election. It must be said that the governor in question was none other than the brother of the Republican candidate…

Meanwhile, the new Republican governors could reshuffle the electoral map to their advantage.

Once every ten years, the U.S. Census Bureau publishes population figures in the United States. In most states, governors can then redraw the electoral map based on new data — but also in terms of their political orientation.

The Republicans might as well change the boundaries of constituencies by isolating Democratic voters in the middle of areas inhabited by conservatives.

This will have no direct impact on the reelection of Mr. Obama, but could favor the opposition candidates for congressional elections in 2012.

Americans will, on November 2, elect all 435 seats of the House of Representatives, 37 of the 100 Senate seats and 37 governorships out of 50.

The Democrats have a majority in both Houses of Congress and Democratic governors control 26 seats, against 24 for Republicans.

*Editor’s Note: Original quotation could not be verified.