Elections in the United States

Everything is set for Nov. 2, when Barack Obama will face what is sure to be his toughest test. The United States holds midterm elections that will renew the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and 37 governorships.

According to the polls, the Republican triumph will be overwhelming, which will be a punishment for Obama’s two years in power. The Republicans need to capture 39 House seats from the Democrats, while they require 10 seats in the Senate to obtain a majority.

And, for now, all signs indicate there is a great possibility that this will occur. This will be, some say, a historic election cycle, chiefly due to the way in which candidates are fighting for power. Here are some examples: Candidate Meg Whitman — the ex-CEO of eBay — has spent $200 million; contributions from the recently bankrupted automobile company General Motors and a surprising Republican campaign from Ken Mehlman, who came out of the closet and organized a group of conservative homosexuals to battle the Democratic — and homosexual — Congressman Barney Frank of Massachusetts.

In economic terms, it is calculated that in only 11 weeks, three independent groups have spent $46 million on 974 campaign ads for different candidates. Furthermore, the campaign has jump-started the caravan of the most conservative Republicans — the extreme right — who created the tea party. This new party is well-organized and well-financed by a network of conservative groups that is spearheaded by FreedomWorks, Americans for Prosperity and those who have assembled massive protests in Washington, where they oppose everything from climate change legislation to the economic stimulus package. In addition, there are those who have insulted Obama with racist attacks, like one entitled “Marxist Muslim.”

The tea party could snatch the states of Illinois, Pennsylvania and even Nevada from the Democrats, and it is assumed that Louisiana, Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina and West Virginia will stay under Democratic control.

The social test that Obama faces is preceded by a serious economic recession, with an incredible rise in unemployment (In 2009, there were close to five million people without jobs.), after a crisis caused by the bankers and mortgage creditors. The only thing that saves Barack’s image is the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, although the situation in Afghanistan continues to be murky.

With all this, it is expected that the result of the elections on Nov. 2 will distribute power in the United States, giving power of the lower house of Congress to the Republicans, with the White House still in the hands of the Democrats; it remains to be seen what will happen with the Senate.

Nevertheless, if anything can serve as an encouragement to the president of the United States it is that, historically, midterm elections have always punished the incumbent. After the United States left World War II, having done so with great success, President Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Republicans lost 48 seats in the House of Representatives in the middle of the recession in 1958.

Ronald Reagan, like Obama, confronted many economic problems, mainly from having entered the White House after a very unpopular president, Jimmy Carter. This is why he had to work hard to convince Congress to reduce the tax rate and public spending. With that, he implored voters to tighten their belts, warning them that doing otherwise would result in the policies of his predecessor. Obama will confront a similar panorama on Nov. 2 in terms of popularity — one that has historically ended badly.

Years later, the charismatic Bill Clinton saw his Democrats lose in the midterm elections of 1994, due to the weakness of the economy at the time and an unemployment rate over six percent. Clinton was also punished by the electorate.

What will happen to Obama on Nov. 2? We don’t know, but it’s almost a fact that he will not pass his final exam, after having failed since beginning his term in the White House.