The U.S.’ Game Plan

This year’s American-Turkish Council meeting gave us an opportunity to ponder Washington’s current game plan. The key players of the American administration surprisingly did not speak in bold terms, and that led many of us to ask: “What is behind all this?” For example, in regards to the Iranian issue, reference was made to the traditional alliance between the U.S. and Turkey that, “It is normal for friends to have problems sometimes.” When the nosedive in Turkish-Israeli relations came up on the agenda during the meetings, nothing much other than, “It would be nice if your troubles with Israel did not last any longer” was heard.

Those who have some knowledge about the workings of U.S. politics are aware that those American officials with close ties to the administration quietly whisper things in the ears of their Turkish counterparts. However, is it not profoundly surprising that the U.S. wants to go ahead with implementing the promised “model partnership” with Turkey, which said “no” to U.N. sanctions on Iran, which almost reached the point of breaking its ties with Israel and which has given the image that it has been trying to fill the void by improving relations with China and Russia? Why is the U.S. administration willing now — after waiting for a year — to embark upon economic openings with Turkey by putting aside the troublesome political issues? The idea of establishing a businessmen council to amplify trade and investment between the two countries belongs originally to the Americans. The fact that Americans have already cherry-picked eight giant companies — while the Turkish side could not even select the names to sit at the council, due to rivalry between businessmen organizations — makes things even more interesting. When asked why, the Americans say, “President Obama made a promise. We cannot abandon his word.” Although there are other reasons behind the stage, it is possible to find a reasonable economic answer: energy! This is also the point made by Ilkem Sahin, the chairman of the Ankara office of the Turkish-American Businessmen Association. Turkey, which is planning to invest in the energy sector to the tune of $110 billion in the next 10 years, is therefore a promising market. The special funds that American Ex-Im Bank allocated for the energy sector and Turkey’s long-term plans to decrease its dependency on Iran and Russia in the energy sector support Sahin’s argument.

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An MP from the Justice and Development Party, Saban Disli, whom we were with in Washington for a few days, shared with us his observations about the unusual atmosphere in the U.S. Disli knows Washington and its “language.” However, he is also trying to determine why the American administration is not speaking boldly, despite the current tension in Turkish-American relations. Our ambassador to Washington gives even more pessimistic messages.

Undoubtedly, there are wise men on both sides, but even the calmest reactions from the U.S. side make the Turkish side wonder. The U.S.’ determination to increase economic cooperation between the two countries keeps alive the question of whether political demands will follow afterwards. Of course I am not assuming that the disappointment and even anger in the White House over certain Turkish policies disappeared when I make this analysis. On the contrary, I am trying to find out how the American side seems to have put a clamp on the prevalent political atmosphere of disappointment and anger. And this is what I’ve come up with: If the Republicans win control over the House of Representatives and the Senate after the coming midterm elections, the so-called Armenian genocide bill, as well as other troublesome issues, will coincide with the coming general elections in Turkey. Then it will be time to teach Turkey a lesson, and the Israeli lobby will be golden!

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It is telling for President Barack Obama, who might possibly lose his extant weight in the U.S. Congress, to want to resuscitate the Middle East peace process. We should take into account Obama’s offering the role of Middle East peace envoy to former member of the House of Representatives, Robert Wexler. Wexler is known as a friend of Turkey. When we consider that he has one foot in Israel at the same time, he comes out as a trustworthy candidate to help improve Turkish-Israeli relations. The American initiative to end the Palestinian plight might improve the U.S.’ standing in the Middle East, help revitalize the partnership with Turkey and isolate the Iranian regime in the region. After all, the subtle message of Alan Makovsky, an expert on Turkey, that “Israel is ready to take steps” and his admission about the early revelation of the secret talks between Turkey and Israel by the dual structure in Israel today are important signs to be taken seriously!