Obama Changed by Voters Instead of Changing the Voters

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 4 November 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Alice Cwern. Edited by Gheanna Emelia.
Two years ago, with “Change” as his slogan, Barack Obama not only became the president of the United States but also brought overwhelming victories to the Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate. Two years later, the majority of voters said “No!” to the changes brought by Obama using their votes. The Republicans have gained 60 seats and taken control of the House of Representatives. They also have gained six seats in the Senate while the Democrats maintain the majority by one seat. The Republicans also won at least 10 new governorships.

Two years ago when Obama won the election, the Democrats had control over the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. With this advantage, Obama got hasty on putting out new bills. From the health care reform, the stimulus package and bank reform, the Republicans and Democrats were never able to reach an agreement. Although Obama was extremely efficient on forcing the bills to pass, it also made some people think that he was arrogant.

The Democrats were also falling apart before the elections: democratic leaders were backstabbing each other and several the senior members resigned right before the elections, as they knew the defeat was coming and jumped off the boat. Six months before the elections, as the public’s dissatisfaction was on the rise, Obama attempted to change the tide by calling back David Plouffe, his chief campaign manager for the 2008 election for help. However, the effort was in vain.

Without a doubt, the Tea Party was the star of the elections. Although the Tea Party did not do as well as predicted — high-profile members such as Christine O’Donnell, Carly Fiorina and Sharon Angle lost their races — members from the Tea Party still won at least three seats in the Senate and many seats in the House. The Tea Party movement, which focuses on decreasing government expenses, has turned into a political party overnight. Once it enters Congress, will it remain as an independent party, or will it accustom to the rules within the system and become a third party? That is still under observation.

The Obama administration will have a tough time in the next two years. Now that the Republicans have gained the majority in the House of Representatives, Democrat Nancy Pelosi will be replaced as Speaker of the House by John Boehner, a Republican who is currently the House Minority Leader. From now on, Democrats will face a lot of opposition from its opposite party on everything they do, such as setting the agenda for Congress or reviewing the bills. No party will have the power to single-handedly pass a bill. In the House, Republicans will pass bills that are against Obama’s plan; in the Senate, Republicans will be more effective on blocking bills that they dislike. Meanwhile, the White House also has the power to reject any bills sent by Congress. With the two parties refusing to compromise, the government may grind to a halt. It has happened before in the history of America. After Newt Gingrich and Republican’s big win in the 1992 elections, they met head-on with Bill Clinton’s Democratic administration. As a result, bills could not get passed and the federal government was essentially frozen.

It might actually not be a bad situation for Obama. In fact, the Republicans realized that the public would also hold them responsible and ended up compromising with the Clinton administration. In 1996, Bill Clinton was re-elected, and the Democrats successfully took Congress back. The compromise brought profit to both parties.

Foreign policy has not been a hot topic during the midterm elections. However, it was surprising for people outside of the U.S. that the Republicans and Tea Party both questioned and criticized Obama’s patriotism. Sarah Palin once said, “I don’t believe America is the only place on earth that is good.”* The Republicans and the Tea Party believe that America is the strongest, most moral country in the world, and cannot accept other countries to challenge America. Therefore, they restrict other countries’ policies, and ask for no restrictions on America. This is the mentality that drove Bush to start invading Iraq. The whole world refuses to imagine a future in which Obama loses his reelection campaign in 2012 and is replaced by a person with such a mentality.

People outside of America used to have high hopes for Obama. However, in the past two years, he has not achieved anything: peace talks in Middle East are still in a deadlock, the discussion on nuclear weapons in Iran and North Korea is not making progress, no agreement has been made at the climate conference in Copenhagen, the war in Afghanistan experiences failure after failure, and America’s relationship with China has been worsened. Obama needs to do more than just saying, “I am not like Bush,” in order to change his image. He must come up with solutions for all of the foreign issues if he wants to gain respect from the rest of the world.

Although the situation is different in Taiwan, predictions could be made for the Metropolitan Elections, which take place three weeks from now. First, voters vote based on their faith in the government. That was the case in America, and it will apply in the Metropolitan Elections. If the opposite party gets public support, the party in power should reflect their policies; if the party in power gets the support, the opposite party should also review its ideology and see if it is outdated.

Second, the results of the midterm election do not determine the result of the next presidential election. Independent voters are flexible on whom to vote for. Both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton got reelected after their defeats in the 1982 and 1994 midterm elections. People who think that the political power has completely shifted will discover that they are speaking too soon.

Last but not least, the campaign for the 2012 presidential election has officially started as the results of the midterm elections were announced on Nov. 2. The political campaign is a crude one, and it is hard to predict who will stay and who will go. The time between the Metropolitan Elections and Taiwan’s presidential election is even shorter: only one year and three months. Hence, the result of the Metropolitan Elections will greatly affect the presidential election.

*Editor's Note: This quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.



兩年前,歐巴馬以「Change」為號召,不僅選上總統,也席捲參、眾兩院的多數。兩年後,美國多數選民同樣以選票,對歐巴馬與他帶來的變化說不!美國期中選舉揭曉,共和黨席捲眾議院多數,足足增加了六十席,而在參議院也增加六席,民主黨僅比半數多一席,州長選舉方面,共和黨則從民主黨手上奪下至少十州。

 回顧兩年前歐巴馬當選時,情勢非常有利,白宮與參眾兩院都由民主黨控制,但也因為自恃有國會多數,歐巴馬推動法案時,操之過急,從健保改革、刺激景氣方案到銀行改革法案,白宮與民主黨國會領導人都不願妥協,立法效率很高,可是卻給別人傲慢的印象。

 歐巴馬的執政團隊也呈現分崩離析,部長們互放暗箭,許多白宮資深幕僚紛紛在期中選舉前辭職他就,呈現大慘敗前先跳船的心態。而早在選前半年,歐巴馬其實就已看到民眾不滿在升高,他還特地把總統選舉的軍師普樂夫找回來操盤,但頹勢已難再扳回。

 無可否認,這次矚目的焦點是茶黨,它所獲得的支持並不如事先的預期,幾位知名度高的候選人,包括歐唐納、費歐娜、安格爾都沒有當選,但是至少三個州的參議員,以及為數不少眾議員都打著茶黨候選人的名號當選。強調減少開支、小政府的茶黨,一夜之間,已從政治運動轉化成政治黨派,將來進入國會,是會形成單獨政團?還是逐步學習華府的權力遊戲規則,被吸納入體制?仍有待觀察。

 期中選舉的挫敗,對歐巴馬政府未來兩年的運作,將造成嚴重的牽制。除了眾議院議長裴洛西去職,由共和黨多數黨領袖貝納出任,所有委員會主席都將換成共和黨人擔任,舉凡議程安排,法案審查,都會受反對黨控制。導致沒有任何一黨有能力單獨推動政策,在眾議院,占多數的共和黨一定會通過歐巴馬不樂見的法案,而參議院中,共和黨會更有效的阻擋他們不喜歡的法案,當然白宮也可以否決國會送來的法案,最後的結果很可能是雙方都不肯退讓,釀成僵局,行政停擺。這不是沒有發生過,一九九二年期中選舉,金瑞契領導的共和黨大勝,與民主黨的柯林頓總統對著幹,連預算都通不過,導致聯邦政府關門。

 這未必對歐巴馬不利,事實上,共和黨知道政府停止運轉,國民的責難無可逃避,最後還是要分攤責任,共和黨後來與柯林頓達成妥協,結果一九九六年柯林頓依然連任成功,而共和黨仍然取得國會多數,各讓一步,雙方政治上也各有所獲。

 在對外方面,外交向來不是期中選舉的重要議題,但是美國以外的人卻訝異的發現,共和黨與茶黨的批評歐巴馬不愛國,用裴琳的話來說,是:「不相信美國是世界上僅見、為善的力量」。他們認為美國是最強大的、最有道德的,無法接受其他挑戰美國的國家興起,所以規範其他國家的法律,不應該約束美利堅,就是這種盲目的意識形態,讓布希發動侵伊拉克戰爭,全世界不敢想像,歐巴馬如果再輸掉兩年後的連任選戰,這樣想法的人回來執政,會變成什麼局面。

 國際社會曾對歐巴馬有很高的期待,但兩年下來,他並沒有做成什麼,中東和談再度陷入僵局、伊朗與北韓的核武談判停頓,哥本哈根環保高峰會沒有達成協議,阿富汗戰場敗仗連連,甚至與中國的關係都比以前退步。要轉變世界對美國的印象,歐巴馬單單靠「我不是布希」是不夠的,世界的問題都還在那裡,在剩下的兩年中,他必須要拿出辦法來,才能贏得世界的尊重。

 三周之後台灣將舉行的五都選舉,雖然國情不同,但是美國期中選舉卻對台灣有若干的啟示。首先,期中選舉是對政府的信任投票,在美國如此,在台灣五都選舉也將會是如此,如果反對黨獲得民眾支持,這是當政者應該深自警惕的,但是如果執政黨候選人受到支持,反對黨也應該檢討自己的主張是否不合時宜。

 其次,期中選舉的結果,就像過去的幾次期中選舉一樣,通常是變動的,成熟的獨立選民會來回選擇,在一九九四年柯林頓時如此、一九八二年雷根主政時也是如此,而且這兩位期中選舉遭逢挫敗的總統,都獲選連任,任何人宣稱「政治版圖」已經轉移,兩年之後,都會發現過度樂觀。

 最後,從二日午夜期中選舉結果揭曉後,二○一二年的美國總統大選就正式起跑,誰會在這兩年間出頭,誰會被潮流給淘汰,政治的競爭是很直接殘酷的,台灣五都選後的時間更短,只有一年三個月,五都選舉的結果與總統大選,將會更緊密的綁在一起。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Ireland: Donald Trump Could Be Swallowed Up by an Epstein Conspiracy He Helped Create

Turkey: Musk versus the Machine: Disrupting the 2-Party System

Turkey: Conflicting Messages to Syria: US Supports Integrity while Israel Attacks

Japan: The Role of a Diplomatic Attitude To Maintain the International Order

Sri Lanka: Is America Moving toward the Far Right?

Topics

Australia: Donald Trump Made MAGA a Promise on the Epstein Files. They Are Holding Him to It

Australia: What’s Behind Donald Trump’s Latest Crypto Adventure?

Ireland: Donald Trump Could Be Swallowed Up by an Epstein Conspiracy He Helped Create

China: Blind Faith in US ‘Security Commitments’ Is Short-Sighted

Thailand: Donald Trump Buys Time with Weapons for Kyiv

Sri Lanka: As Albanese Stands Tall, Let’s Stand by Her

Indonesia: Trump’s 19% Tariffs: How Should We Respond?

Turkey: Conflicting Messages to Syria: US Supports Integrity while Israel Attacks

Related Articles

Taiwan: Trump Stacks the Deck: EU-Canada Trade Talks Forced To Fold

Taiwan: 2 Terms Won’t Satisfy Trump

Taiwan: Making America Great Again and Taiwan’s Crucial Choice

Japan: US-Japan Defense Minister Summit: US-Japan Defense Chief Talks Strengthen Concerns about Single-Minded Focus on Strength

Taiwan: A Brief Look at Trump’s Global Profit Grab