“The Tea Party Will Have to Play the Game, Too.”

U.S. expert Christian Lammert on John Boehner and the new balance of power in Washington.

A new balance of power in the U.S. Congress heralds the second half of President Barack Obama’s term. Der Standard asked renowned political scientist and expert on the United States, Christian Lammert, about his expectations for the new congressional majority.

Der Standard (STA): What’s your assessment of the new Speaker of the House, John Boehner?

Christian Lammert (LAM): Currently, he’s positioning himself as Obama’s opponent, as his agenda shows. He has announced his intention to repeal much of what Obama was able to accomplish in his first two years. Measured by his congressional performance, however, he belongs more to the moderate, centrist wing of the Republican Party. He’s already said there’s a great deal he’s willing to compromise on. But Boehner is faced right now with the difficult task of uniting the broad spectrum that makes up his party. At present, he’s doing that by polarization, but in his everyday dealing with the Democrats, he’s likely to take a more pragmatic line.

STA: Does the tea party represent the threat of continued opposition?

LAM: That will be difficult. Many of the newly elected House Republicans are tea partiers, and they will need time to get acclimatized and to learn the ropes of how Washington operates. There’s obviously a danger that the tea partiers will have to play games in order to accomplish anything. But at the same time, they can’t afford to follow a course of fundamental opposition, because that doesn’t go over with voters. The American political system is set up in such a way that they have to accomplish things for the voters; otherwise, they won’t get re-elected. The tea party candidates will be held to that same standard. Beyond that, the movement is highly splintered in regard to their goals. Some are social conservatives opposed to abortion and fetal research, while others are fiscal conservatives who don’t want big government.

STA: Several U.S. states are challenging Obama’s health care reforms in the court system. Could those challenges succeed?

LAM: No, not by any means. House Republicans may have already announced their intention to have a vote to repeal as early as next week, but that’s purely symbolic politics. The reforms have begun to be implemented little by little and according to opinion surveys are very popular. The most I could imagine is that a few states may try to negotiate more local control over the implementation of the reforms. I don’t believe it will result in major changes, much less a retraction of them.

STA: In your opinion, what are Obama’s chances for re-election in 2012?

LAM: His chances have actually gotten better. One might compare this to the Clinton administration. He suffered massive defeats at the midterm elections as well but then succeeded in positioning himself as a communicator between the parties, something that brought him a great deal of respect. Obama no longer has to consider fundamental Republican opposition; the Republicans now have to engage in legislating. If he plays his cards skillfully with both parties, he can still get some of his reforms passed. But how the economy develops will, of course, play a pivotal role. If he succeeds in reducing unemployment, Obama’s future looks pretty bright.