Does Hu Jintao’s Visit to the U.S. Show If the U.S.-China Relationship Has “Leveled Up”?

Published in Zaobao
(China) on 18 January 2011
by Shui Ling (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Rose Zu. Edited by Heidi Kaufmann.
Chinese Premier Hu Jintao will visit the U.S. Jan. 18-22. His visit to the United States of America will gather the attention of many parties in the world.

The U.S.-China relationship is seen as the 21st century’s most important bilateral relationship. Hu Jintao’s visit to the U.S. will have a large impact on the future of U.S.-China relations. Is this an opportunity or a challenge? Does his visit level up the relationship or present a setback? What path will this relationship take in the future?

This year marks the 40th anniversary of China’s invitation to President Richard Nixon to visit China. His visit has been seen as a turning point in U.S.-China relations, as not long afterward, the PRC and the U.S. — the world’s major powers of the East and West — established formal diplomatic relations.

In the first 10 years of establishing diplomatic relations, China, by means of Deng Xiaoping’s wind of reform, was the largest beneficiary in the economic arena. Some scholars call this period the U.S.-China honeymoon. After the end of the Cold War, China and the U.S. maintained the duality of a relationship that was neither friendly nor hostile, neither confrontational nor collaborative.

Even though many differences exist between China and the U.S., there are also constants. China and the U.S. are each other’s main trading partners, and they have the same interests when it comes to fighting terrorism and preventing nuclear proliferation.

The uninhibited rise and fall of the two countries’ relations reminds the author of the 1962 Shanghai Animation Film Studio-produced artistic film, “Absentminded and Unhappy.” As soon as the U.S. gets “absentminded,” China will be “unhappy.”

High Start, Low Finish

From November 2009, when President Obama first visited China, to December’s Copenhagen Climate Conference, to the American government preparing to sell Taiwan Patriot missiles, to Google pulling out of China in a dispute over Internet freedom, and to the U.S., Japan and Korea rejecting China’s proposal of unconditionally launching six-party talks at a Foreign Ministers’ meeting, 2010 can be considered the year of the wild ride in U.S.-China relations.

Core Issues

Chinese officials have always declared that the question of Taiwan is the core issue of U.S.-China relations, as well as the foundation of U.S.-China diplomatic relations. U.S. officials have publicly pledged to maintain its “One China” policy, while at the same time following its domestic “Taiwan Relations Act,” exporting large quantities of defensive military weapons to Taiwan for use in defending against a mainland invasion, even spreading them as far as the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea. Security in East Asian seas, freedom of aircraft carriers and navigation, and whether or not to fight over new issues of “spheres of influence” have all become new, expanding cracks in the U.S.-China relationship.

International Cooperation

U.S.-China “international cooperation” includes such issues as climate change and global financial reform, as well as issues in international relations, such as those surrounding Iran and North Korea’s nuclear activity.

China is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and has veto power over any proposal. The only issues where China can adopt any actions on “important international and regional issues” are the Iran and North Korea nuclear issues.

Because of China’s opening and reform, its economic rise, and its increasing political power, China is gradually toughening its attitude toward the U.S., which does not behoove cooperation between the two nations. In the words of a Chinese netizen in Germany, Xie Shengyou, “How is China an adversary to the U.S.?”

There are two factors that have influenced the change in nature of the two countries’ relationship: One is China’s politics and economic development; the second is the U.S.’ position as a superpower. If China’s economic development causes democratization, the strategic relationship between the U.S. and China will change.

The author believes that whether or not Hu Jintao’s current visit “levels up” U.S.-China relations, the future relationship will still have more cooperation than conflict and more common interests than differences. We just have to consider that there’s a “fly in the ointment!”


从胡锦涛访美展望中美关系是否“给力”?
  中美关系被视为是二十一世纪最重要的双边关系,胡锦涛访美将对未来的中美关系产生重要的影响,是机遇还是挑战?他的访问是给力还是不给力?未来的中美关系将何去何从呢?

  二零一一年是美国总统理查德·尼克松受邀访问中国四十周年,他的访华被视为中美关系的转折点。不久以后,中国和美国这个世界上主要的两个东西方大国正式建立外交关系。

  在中美建交的头十年中,借着邓小平的开放改革的政策的东风,中国在经济领域可谓是最大的受益者,一些学者称这段时期是中美蜜月期。冷战结束后,中美关系始终保持着非敌非友,对抗与合作并存的趋势。

  虽然中美之间存在很多分歧,同时也保持着许多稳定的因素。中美两国是主要的贸易合作伙伴,在反对恐怖主义、防止核扩散方面有着共同的利益。

  两国关系的跌宕起伏使笔者联想起一九六二年由上海美术电影制片厂制作的美术片《没头脑和不高兴》。美国一旦“没头脑”了,中国就要“不高兴”了!

  高开低走

  从二零零九年十一月奥巴马总统首次访问中国,到十二月份哥本哈根气候峰会,再到美国政府最后批准向台湾出售爱国者导弹,又发生谷歌撤华的网络自由纠纷,接着美日韩三国外长会议拒绝中国提议,不同意无条件启动六方会谈,2010年的中美关系算得上是折腾的一年。

  核心问题

  中国官方一直称台湾问题是中美关系的核心问题,是中美两国外交关系的政治基础。美国官方向来公开宣示坚持“一个中国”政策,同时根据其国内法《台湾关系法》,出口大批防御性武器给台湾,以作为防卫中国大陆攻台之用,甚至扩散到了南中国海、东海和黄海。有关中美在东亚的海上安全、航母航行自由以及是否正在争夺新的“势力范围”问题,都成为了中美关系新的、却在不断扩大的裂痕。

  国际合作

  中美“国际合作”包括诸如气候变化和国际金融改革,还有国际关系中的伊朗和朝鲜的核计划问题。

  中国是安理会常任理事国,拥有对所有提议的否决权。在一些“重要国际与地区问题”上,中国能真正采取些行动的,恐怕只有伊朗和朝鲜核问题。

  由于中国改革开放,经济崛起,综合国力提升,中国对美态度逐渐强硬起来,不利于两国国际合作。用一个在德国的中国网友谢盛友的话说:“中国目前哪是美国的“对手”?

  影响两国关系性质变化的关键因素有两个:一是中国的政治和经济发展。二是美国的超级大国的地位。如果中国的经济发展导致民主化,中美之间的战略关系将改变。

  笔者认为,不论此次胡锦涛访美是否给力,未来的中美关系仍将合作多于冲突,共同利益大于彼此分歧,也算是“美中不足”吧!

  时事分析评论人 水令

《联合早报网》
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