Washington Has Already Begun Lending a Hand to Mubarak

Hillary Clinton measured her words with great precision. She avoided a direct claim to President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation and talked of “orderly transition” and “fair elections”. But, it can be said that Washington has already made up its mind: The United States has begun lending a hand to its most important strategic ally in the Arab world. And they are already working on a complex design for the new, post-Mubarak era.

No wonder, then, that Barack Obama has talked with regional leaders during the weekend, something he avoided doing during the Tunisia revolution, in which he readily displayed a “thumbs down” to dictator Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali, without much remorse.

But Egypt is not Tunisia. The Nation of the Pharaohs contains the largest army of the Arab world, and it is the country that defends United States interests before its neighboring countries. The Cairo government— Arab, but a friend of Israel— was the guarantor of stability in the Middle East for over three decades.

Mubarak’s fall can move everything across the political spectrum in the Arab world, and what Washington fears most—as Hillary explicitly said yesterday—is the empty space of power, with the old leader resisting and no one responding to him.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamic extremism has, thus far, remained out of sight, but the chaotic situation may be to their benefit. The novelty of the militias — the people who arm themselves for self-righteousness in a place where there is no authority — only encourages the tragedy of the fratricidal struggle in a country of diverse ethnicities.

And the White House has not resolved to bet on the opposition leader, Mohamed El Baradei, who, despite being a moderate Democrat, does not awaken U.S. sympathies due to frictions through his dealings with the International Atomic Energy Agency of the UN. Similarly, for Washington it would be a much more clean option than that of an Islamist government.

The key element seems to lie in the army. The telephone lines between the Pentagon and the Cairo headquarters are wearing out, and it is not surprising that yesterday Hillary devoted appraisals to the “prestigious and respected” military.

Those in uniform can help out with this “orderly” transition — guided by new Vice President Omar Suleiman, a U.S. military partner — which could end in September with free elections and Mubarak in winter quarters.

But Washington has not played all of its cards yet: There still remains the most valuable assistance of $1,500 million annually sent to Egypt, especially reserved for the military. Hillary confirmed yesterday that that is not in doubt. But everything could change if the old leader continues clinging to his seat.