Barack Obama versus the CIA

The U.S. president is disappointed in the American intelligence agency.

U.S. President Barack Obama criticized, in his opinion, the failure of the U.S. intelligence agency to predict the crises in the Middle East. The apparent cause for the disappointment is the CIA analysts’ reports, submitted in mid-January of this year. Even after the outbreak of demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt, the intelligence agency continued to confirm that mass revolts would not result in the overthrow of the governments in these countries.

At the end of last week, the U.S. president told members of his administration to express to National Intelligence Director James Clapper that he is “disappointed with the intelligence community.” A source close to the U.S. administration confirmed that the president’s disappointment was caused by the intelligence agency’s reports, submitted in mid-January of this year. According to the predications of CIA analysts, the president of Tunisia, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, was expected to maintain power and the uprisings in Egypt were called “local and short-term.”

The data provided by the Associated Press gives the same version of events that General Clapper presented during several meetings of the House Intelligence Committee, when he was asked to discuss the situation in the region. It was revealed that the Pentagon had no information about the events in the Middle East. “I think, actually, it has taken not just us but many people by surprise,” said U.S. Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during the Daily Show last week.

Regardless, the White House publicly rejected charges that the intelligence agency underperformed in evaluating the situation in the Middle East. “Did anyone in the world predict that a fruit vendor in Tunisia would light himself on fire and spark a revolution? No,” said White House spokesman Tommy Vietor. “Have not intelligence and diplomatic services informed us for decades that there was a growing discontent in the region? Have not they told us the economic situation is causing more and more frustration?”

He also confirmed that intelligence agencies have on numerous occasions warned the White House that the events in Tunisia could cause a chain reaction. Attempts by the Obama administration to stop the escalating crisis, it appears, did not impress the senators. Last Thursday, a confirmation hearing turned into a debate over the competence of the intelligence agency. The hearing was to confirm top CIA official Stephanie O’Sullivan as deputy director of national intelligence, the second in charge to Mr. Clapper.

“These events should not have come upon us with the surprise that they did,” Sen. Diana Feinstein, committee chairwoman, said at the beginning of the hearing. She also said intelligence agencies had failed to inform U.S. authorities about the oncoming events in time, despite the fact there were no attempts to conceal the happenings in Tunisia and Egypt. “Demonstrators were using the Internet and social media to organize. Was someone looking at what was going on the Internet?” Feinstein asked.

“We warned of instability” but “we didn’t know what the triggering mechanism would be,” said CIA official Stephanie O’Sullivan.

Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia asked that all members of the Committee be provided with a record of when the CIA briefed President Obama about the situation in Egypt and Tunisia. This record is due to the committee in 10 days.

After the hearings, Sen. Feinstein said she “was very upset” that the intelligence agency underestimated the importance of social networks, including Facebook and Twitter. “The CIA appears not to see the need to monitor open sources and this is very, very important,” she said.*

Experts think that the events in the Middle East have caused people to talk about the underperforming intelligence agency in the U.S. Former CIA officer Bruce Riedel is confident that American intelligence agencies have paid too much attention to the situation in Iran and the fight against terrorism in the past years. “Are we too fixated on terrorism and Iran today and not enough on the broad generational changes in the region?” he asked.

*Editor’s Note: Quote, accurately translated, could not be verified.