Egypt: Where Does Obama Stand?

Egypt has been in flames for almost a week. And it’s not a small country at the end of the map, so it’s interesting to keep track of the goings-on there. This is the most important Arab country, the leader of the Arab League; it has a peace agreement with Israel, and there has been an explicitly pro-Western leadership there for decades. It is not a democratic country — even if there are liberties in some areas, and a certain freedom of expression and a limited space for the political opposition. From the unrest on the streets, we’ve learned again something about snowballs. Even a strong and disciplined army, a tough police and a relentless secret service may become paper tigers, when the masses are reaching a conclusion that the time for the regime is over.

President Barack Obama has arrived at his position out of a distinctly pragmatic approach to the foreign relations of his homeland. Contrary to his predecessor President Bush, he didn’t attempt to be a global teacher and impose democratization on the Arab world. In his Cairo speech he referred, indeed, to human rights — but didn’t require his host to change completely the nature of the regime, because it was obvious for him what that would mean. He preferred slow and gradual change over drastic changes, which would likely bring the most extremist forces in Egypt to the front of the stage, just as it came to pass in Iran and other places in the world.

An Irresponsible Action

In the face of these days’ happenings in Egypt, the U.S. is taking a strange posture. Its speakers emphasize the relationship between the two countries and the need to continue it, but they are taking a clear-cut neutral position with respect to the street demonstrations, and call for the Egyptian authorities not to resort to violent measures towards the protesters. But the thing is that the U.S. is — still — the only superpower in the world — and the one heading it is not an observer. The overthrow of Hosni Mubarak’s regime and the seizure of power in this mega-country by extremist Islamic elements is a nightmare scenario.

Obama has to decide whether he will give it a hand by means of a do-nothing policy, or if he will rush to help one of his most important but imperfect allies in the Middle East.

Obama, who has recently fixed a few of his mistakes and partially regained the support he lost in the first half of his term, is not tested at the moment for his political ability to build a coalition in the House of Representatives. This time, it’s about a vital component of the Middle East map, and the undermining of which will have direct repercussions for the plans of the American administration to exit Iraq and Afghanistan this year.

An American exodus from the Middle East — while its passing into extremist hands would clearly be an irresponsible, and perhaps, also unthinkable course of action. Obama would better remember the grand finale of President Carter, who made possible the downfall of the Persian Shah and paid for that with not only his seat’s price, but the price of far-reaching transformation of the Middle East’s face as well. He must not repeat that mistake.