America, the Middle East Is Waiting for Explanations!

There are many aircraft in the Cairo skies and tanks crawling towards the downtown area, the battle is not decided yet — but it’s quite clear that Israel is going to need to thoroughly assess the situation. For now, she’s keeping an impressive discipline of silence — and it’s the right move for this moment.

Yesterday, Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel wants to continue to preserve the stability and security in its relations with Egypt, but question marks popped up like mushrooms after the rain. A regime shift along the Nile is likely to overshadow purchasing gas from Egypt, transporting merchandise from the far east to Israel through the Suez Canal, the compliance of the Egyptian security bodies to the closure of the Gaza Strip and even fighting illegal infiltration from Africa to Israel. It stands to reason that there are also other elements of cooperation whose fate and future Israel will have to fear for.

Since Begin and Sadat signed the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty under Jimmy Carter’s patronage, Israel ceased to see in Egypt an enemy. This assumption had been substantiated by a series of violent events, such as the intifada, two wars in Lebanon and firing the rockets from the Gaza Strip. This stems from the peace agreement, but how committed will the next Egyptian administration feel to it?

Obama’s Far Flung Gamble

Israel is primarily concerned with Obama’s attitude to Mubarak. Thirty-five years ago, Sadat had wiped the Soviet influence from his land and teamed up with the U.S. For three decades, Hosni Mubarak has been a prominent ally of America, which has served as an umbrella for honoring the peace agreement.

Currently, Obama has gone for a far-reaching gamble. He has not let Mubarak get ready, to breathe in some air in the struggle against the roaring street. Pushing him to give up more and more. It may be that the Americans know that the revolutionary government will maintain his affinity to the West, but they have no confidence in this. There is also room to wonder: how would relations with Cairo look like if Mubarak manages to survive? They don’t have a persuasive answer.

But how are the Americans themselves going to be perceived in the eyes of moderate Arab rulers after stabbing a knife in the back of their most important longtime partner? Also, in Israeli eyes, there is no peace in the Middle East without the American umbrella; not only with Egypt, but also with Jordan and sometimes with Syria. When the sovereigns of the Arab countries become convinced that America is a broken reed, why would they be willing to make peace with Israel under her auspices? After the crisis in Egypt ends as it will — America is going to have a lot of explaining to do in Amman, in Damascus, in Riyadh and, as strangely as it sounds, in Jerusalem as well.