Bahrain – President Obama’s Next Test

The recent awakening in Bahrain illuminates the fact that, despite the common denominator shared by the protests across the Muslim world over the past few weeks, the attention of the U.S. government is still an important factor. Dr. Emily Landau, a professor of security studies at Tel Aviv University, expects that the U.S. will be forced to take on a more realistic approach in the Persian Gulf.

It appears that the next stop for the protests that are spreading across the Middle East is the island-state of Bahrain in the Persian Gulf. The aspiration to be free from the shackles of oppressive regimes has arrived in recent days to the Bahraini population and has thus far encountered a harsh reaction from the authorities – including attacks on the protesters in Pearl Square.

The awakening in Bahrain illuminates the fact that, despite the shared expression of mass anger against oppressive rulers, the attention is on the US government’s actions. Obama’s administration – which on the rhetorical level is distributing generous servings of support to populations who are fighting for freedom and democracy – understands the differences well. In fact, the U.S. government has displayed a practical, and some may say opportunistic, approach to the developments in the region.

Bahrain presents a unique challenge to the United States, especially in light of the criticism the U.S. received for its handling of the uprising against Mubarak in Egypt. Regardless, it appears that the administration is adopting a cautious approach toward the situation developing in Bahrain, primarily out of geopolitical considerations. Bahrain is in an alliance with the US, and on the island is the base for the Fifth Naval Fleet, which is responsible for guarding oil routes for the West. Additionally, Bahrain cooperates with U.S. efforts to isolate Iran. Last year it agreed to host anti-missile defenses within its borders, which are intended to ward off the Iranian threat. Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE host missile defense systems as well. Moreover, Bahrain fears Iran – who on several occasions has expressed claims against Bahrain’s sovereignty – including “historically-based” declarations that the micro-nation is essentially its 14th district. The fact that around 70 percent of the population in Bahrain is Shiite does not help and, in fact, Bahrain’s leaders believe that Iran is working from within their own borders to provoke the population against them.

What is Hiding behind the Rhetorical Cloak?

As the U.S. government stands behind the protesting Iranian population, with respect to Bahrain the message is different. There, the Obama administration conveys a message to King Hamad Al-Khalifa that encourages him to do more to respond to the demands of the people and open up more to the youth who are searching for opportunities. One must remember that the protesters in Bahrain are not suffering very much, as evidenced by the fact that they are not demanding to oust the king, but rather political reform, more freedoms and economic improvement. Therefore, unlike what happened in Egypt, there is no pressure on the U.S. to support overthrowing a tyrannical leader. The King has already committed to accelerating the process of implementing political reform, including an easing of government intrusion in communications and Internet. He also committed to distributing 1000 dinar to each family.

As long as there will be more occasions of uprising in the Middle East, the different approaches in American dealings with different Arab states will be revealed. Not far below the rhetorical cloak of support for peoples who demand more freedom are practical and realistic considerations that will influence America’s response. And in the Persian Gulf, the likely deciding factor for America’s course of action will be based on how it can best restrain Iran.