Western Societal Pressures No Lighter Than Egypt’s

While the current social unrest in the Middle East is expressed differently in different countries, there are some similarities: They are mainly powered by the massive middle- and lower-middle classes who are unhappy with current socioeconomic conditions and disappointed in incumbent governments. Even as requests diverge from group to group, all groups are asking political leaders to step down. Social networking sites are showing off their prowess and protests today are not the same as in the past — there is neither one consolidated organization nor one leader.

Looking at a broad time scale, the current sociopolitical movement does not stand alone. Looking into the past and horizontally into other regions, the current movement reveals similarities to many previous movements, such as those in the West, Kenya and Kyrgyzstan. It can even be considered a kind of extension and expansion toward a climax. Part of that reason — or the direct trigger — is the global financial crisis of 2008, which increased the difficulty of economic development, leading to a worsening of the standard of living for the vast middle- and lower-middle classes, causing greater displeasure.

Whether it is the Tunisian and Egyptian street protesters or the U.S. tea party, they are all grassroots representatives who have made full use of the Internet to rally their movements. Protests result in change of leadership or in making administration more difficult. The Conservative Party took over after the British Labor Party failed to stimulate the economy for 10 years. United States President Barack Obama replaced the 8-year Bush Administration with the slogan “change.” These administration changes cannot be said to be totally different from the fleeing of Tunisia’s Ben Ali after 23 years in power or the stepping down of Egypt’s Mubarak after 30 years in power.

In other words, practically speaking, sociopolitical movements and changes in governments in the Middle East are no different in their basic natures from the changing of political leaderships through elections in the West and the exploration of the capitalist “Fourth Way” and “new capitalism.” Citizens, in both cases, are motivated by the desire to better the country’s path and structure of development in an era of new technology or poor economic situations. The differences are in the methods used by the people in their endeavors. In countries in Europe and America, street protests and dissatisfaction end in elections that alter the political leadership and thus realize changes in political directions and reforms. Protests in the Middle East will first oust the incumbent powers before new political leaderships are chosen via elections or other methods, thus realizing new governance.

These basic commonalities and differences are consciously or unconsciously minimized or even ignored in international discourse largely led by Europe and the United States. In comparison, the West exaggerates and magnifies issues such as Middle Eastern religion (Islam), culture (radicalism) and political systems (authoritarianism) such that these almost become all that the so-called “international society” focuses on.

On the other hand, from a “vertical” perspective, at the epicenter of this round of sociopolitical unrest are new problems adding to the worsening old problems that lead to crises. Inflation continues to rise despite the financial crisis and, since 2007, the food crisis repeatedly pushes food prices upwards, adversely affecting the lives of the middle- and lower-middle classes. These problems react with the long-term basic socioeconomic problems such as high population growth, high unemployment and increasing income-inequality. These issues become superimposed upon each other, strengthening the other, causing long-term accumulations of social contradictions to burst forth. To that, add the inefficacy and helplessness of the government, and finally there is a systematic failure resulting in chaos.

To a large degree, the epicenter could be traced further back to external and internal stress brought upon by 9/11 or to the earlier Cold War and the resultant politics and socioeconomic reforms pursued by Middle Eastern countries. Thus, what is happening today is the long-term continuation and deepening of historic transformations. In other words, if governments had been able to merge national interests with global trends, to persist in pushing for reforms and policies to better satisfy population majorities, then perhaps they would have been spared the current sociopolitical movement.

I foresee that this round of sociopolitical movements, after sweeping through Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Yemen, Bahrain, Oman and Iran, will continue to expand and impact even more countries. Not only will peace in the short-term be difficult, there may even be more dramatic changes deeply affecting the entire region’s politics, economy, society, culture and international relations.

Gao Zugui is a professor at the CPC Party Central School’s Institute of International Strategic Studies.