Russia and U.S. to Attempt to Strike a Bargain

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to the Russian Federation begins today. At the Kremlin there is no attempt to disguise the fact that discussions will primarily be devoted to bilateral economic relations, with one of the key themes being the resolution of the “Georgia problem” on Russia’s path to accession to the World Trade Organization. Moscow is obviously hoping that the U.S., having a great deal of influence on Georgia, will convince the nation to remove its current objections. As Aide to the Russian President Sergei Prikhodko told Kommersant, America is giving signals that it is ready to assist. This readiness may be connected to Moscow’s position in relation to another country, Libya.

Contrary to prediction, Mr. Biden’s visit will most likely not involve substantive discussions of an American Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense system in Europe or, likewise, the Russian initiative in creating a so-called sectoral Anti-Ballistic Missiles Treaty. “There will be conversation on this topic,” Aide to the President Sergei Prikhodko assured Kommersant. “But Biden did not come in order to hold negotiations on this.” This was confirmed to Kommersant by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who observes American trends: “The ABM situation will be discussed in general terms. We will consider what our objectives may be here.”

Kremlin officials, having announced Mr. Biden’s arrival to Moscow, immediately gave to understand that discussions would primarily be dedicated to economics and trade. An agreement between Aeroflot and Boeing is confirmation of that. It should be signed today in the presence of Mr. Biden and Igor Shuvalov, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. The contract makes provisions for the delivery of eight new Boeing 777-300ER airplanes to Russia (plus eight as an option). The liners will be delivered from the Boeing factory in Seattle from 2012 to 2017. The projected total for the deal is $1.8 billion.

But Kommersant sources note that much greater attention will be devoted to the prospect of Russia’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). All problems in that area are resolved with Washington, and perhaps the only obstacle preventing Moscow from becoming a full-fledged member of the WTO is the deadlock in its relations with Georgia. The problem in negotiations between Russia and Georgia regarding the WTO is almost irresolvable. Georgia’s chief demand is to connect its customs service to the processing of export-import operations on Russia’s border with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, republics which are recognized by Russia, Venezuela, Nauru and Nicaragua. Tbilisi cites a 2004 agreement, in accordance with which Moscow promised to begin negotiations on this issue. But since that time the situation has not changed substantially.

Having recognized the republics that seceded from Georgia, Russia cannot unilaterally grant Georgian customs officials the right to inspect transported goods without violating the sovereignty of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. Tbilisi, in its turn, claims that trade between Georgia and Russia is impossible, as the goods travel through South Ossetia and Abkhazia. According to Georgian laws, conducting transit and customs inspections at Georgian-Ossetian and Georgian-Abkhazian borders is illegitimate; these borders do not exist for Georgia. Meanwhile, it is these very questions of mutual trade that are regulated by the WTO.

Georgia is not creating official obstacles for Russia’s joining the WTO. Its representatives are merely suggesting that the above-mentioned issues be settled within the framework of a multilateral memorandum on joining the WTO, work in which they are participating. Without consent from Georgian experts, the document cannot be approved. Furthermore, if Russian lawyers find a loophole in its construction, Georgia reserves the right at any moment to dissolve the 1997 bilateral agreement with Russia that approved its joining the WTO. In that case Moscow would have to insist that its joining the WTO be approved not by a consensus of interested participants but by a majority of votes. This possibility is not excluded in the WTO regulations, but it has never been applied in practice. However, in that case the Russian lawyers would have to persuade the WTO to disregard the original rules of the multilateral negotiations, and then to create a precedent. But then it is not likely that Russia would be joining the WTO in 2011-2012. The alternative is simple, but it is unlikely that it would be acceptable for Moscow: to recognize the sovereignty of Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia in customs matters.

Georgian politicians are demonstrating Tbilisi’s determination to reach a resolution on the border issues. “Interrelations between Georgia and Russia, including on the issue of accession to the WTO, should be founded on a respect of border or between-border relations,” says David Darchiashvili, Chairman of the European Integration Committee in Georgia’s Parliament. “We understand that it is unlikely that Georgian border guards and customs officials will be able to stand at the border tomorrow. That is not realistic. But we should be moving in that direction. Georgia insists on it.”

According to a member of Parliament, Russia’s entrance into the WTO is advantageous for Georgia “because Russia is becoming a civilized player, including in the realm of economics.” Therefore, Georgia is ready for compromise, but it will insist that Russia in one way or another recognize that the territorial and border problems on the Psou River and the Roksk tunnel must be resolved in its interrelations with Tbilisi. “If Russia approaches this issue with flexibility, then the groundwork for a tentative mutual understanding at this stage can be laid. In the opposite scenario, Georgia will not agree to Russia’s entry into the WTO,” Mr. Darchiashvili stated emphatically.

Russian and Georgian diplomats will undertake an attempt to come to an agreement this week in the Swedish city of Bern. “We are establishing ties on the WTO issues with the Georgian side,” Sergei Prikhodko acknowledged to Kommersant. He is sure that the problems in the Georgian area are not insurmountable. “In Georgia there are pragmatic and sensible politicians interested in normalizing relations. We hope that common sense will prevail in the end.”

By all appearances, Moscow is hoping that the U.S., having a great deal of influence on the current Georgian leadership, will use that influence to help resolve the problems with the WTO. In any case, according to Sergei Prikhodko, America is giving signals that it is ready to assist.

This readiness may be connected to Moscow’s position in relation to another country, Libya. The situation there will also be discussed during Joe Biden’s visit. Russia did not only support the UN sanctions initiated by the West in relation to the Libyan leadership, but it also condemned the continuing war crimes against the civilian population in Libya. “The Russian position consists of the need to cease violence against the civilian population immediately and transfer the situation to the political arena. The crisis must be resolved by political means; for this the bloodshed must stop,” stated Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday. He emphasized that “crimes against the civilian population should not go unpunished.” And although Sergei Lavrov announced that Russia does not consider armed intervention to be a means of resolving the crisis in Libya, he nevertheless did not speak out categorically against such intervention.