Robert Gates’ Last Visit

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ arrival was expected to happen yesterday. He should have left for Russia Saturday evening, but military activities in Libya postponed his departure. In the course of his previous visit to Moscow and St. Petersburg as the head of the Pentagon, Robert Gates discussed the situation in North Africa and in Afghanistan, views on anti-ballistic missile defense, and the progress of the implementation of the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms. He also pressed Moscow on tactical nuclear weapons.

Gates’ visit to the Russian Federation should have started yesterday. It was planned that he would arrive in St. Petersburg, view points of interest in the city, and have a private viewing of the Hermitage. He would also give a speech to the Admiral Kuznetsov Naval Academy, and only then would he visit Moscow, where he would meet with the Minister of Defense, Anatoly Serdyukov.

Tomorrow, Washington’s guest should have met with the president of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev. However, the beginning of the operation against Moammar Gadhafi in Libya delayed his departure. The Pentagon said in a statement on Saturday that the delay would be one day at minimum.

This is a reciprocal visit. In September of last year, Gates met with Anatoly Serdyukov in Washington, who then invited him to Russia. It was announced that this would be the last visit for Gates to Moscow in his current role. As the AFP reminds us, the head of the Pentagon, who was inherited by President Barack Obama from his predecessor George Bush, will resign from his chair this year.

Experts expect that the visit will be routine, regardless of what is happening with the new military operations, even though they are exactly as they were before in Yugoslavia, where the U.S. was directly involved. It is obvious that Moscow will need an explanation of what the Americans seek to achieve with the air strikes in Libya. We should note that Gates himself did not support military intervention.

The Pentagon also notes that there will be discussions about anti-ballistic missile defense (ABM). “I do not expect a breakthrough concerning ABM. That’s because the position of the American leadership is fixed. The U.S. Secretary of State plays the lead role in this discussion. Although, they are talking about ABM for NATO, and not purely an American ABM,” declared the former Chief of Staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel-General Viktor Esin to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

In his opinion, Gates will repeat that the U.S. and its allies in NATO will build their own ABM system in Europe, that Russia should also build its own system, and that Washington will be prepared to cooperate with us. However, there is no clear mechanism of collaboration. There are not even plans for the establishment of a joint center for sharing information.

In light of this, a correspondent for Nezavisimaya Gazeta expects that the American will attempt to press Moscow on the topic of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW). Viktor Esin recalls that the U.S. Senate, while considering the ratification of New START, conveyed to the administration a requirement that it should begin discussions with Russia about the imbalance of TNW.

“Obama previously promised that in 2011, these discussions with Moscow would begin. This promise should be kept, even more so since we are on the cusp of American elections,” said Viktor Esin. It can be assumed that the beginnings of a treaty for TNW were urged earlier this month with Vice President Joseph Biden’s visit to Moscow.

It seems that it is important for Washington to provide legislators a mere hint of the start of discussions with the Russian Federation in regards to TNW. However, in the opinions of experts, Moscow is unlikely to agree to start a treaty.

The Russian position hinges on first seeing how New START will be enacted. And there is cause for concern. It is sufficient to recall that in the resolution for ratification — which was taken up on Dec. 22, 2010, after six days of debate — the U.S. Senate expressed its “advise and consent” for ratification of New START in compliance with 14 “conditions,” three “understandings” and 12 “declarations.”

If we compare this position to the one that was approved by Russian lawmakers for the document, then it is possible to talk about different interpretations of New START in Russia and in the U.S. on certain aspects. It is feared that the Americans will fulfill New START in accordance with the guidance of their own senators, and Russia has virtually been put on hold.

Moreover, since the 1990s Russia has put conditions for the start of consultations with the U.S. over TNW to include the removal of all American nuclear weapons from European national territory. However, experts suggest that the Kremlin would be able to correct these conditions to avoid political arguments.

“It might be possible for them to take the initiative into their own hands and play along with Obama, agreeing to begin consultations about TNW. Especially since there is already a mechanism set up for this. This is the working group of Sergei Ryabkov and Ellen Tauscher under the Russian-American presidential commission. In these consultations, it might be possible to push forward their own requirements, to identify tactical nuclear weapons as a remedy for regional deterrence. And that all the international powers who possess them should take part in the solution of this problem. These powers include France, the United Kingdom and China,” concluded Viktor Esin.