Obama and the Middle East: Approaching the Second Cairo Speech?

Are we looking forward to the second Cairo speech? It doesn’t have to be in Cairo, this could also take place in Washington or somewhere else. But a sequel of the address that President Obama gave two years ago at Cairo University may be expected soon. From all kinds of hints from the president’s aides, one can gather that Obama believes that the 2009 speech was instrumental in the creation of the atmosphere that gave birth to the developments of the last weeks throughout the Arab world.

He’s right. In the Cairo speech, there truly had been sown, for better or worse, the seeds of the commotion befalling the Middle East today — whether they constitute the strides towards democracy or heralding the strengthening of Islamism. Obama is aware of various possible scenarios, and therefore it looks like in the planned speech, he’ll try to convince the rulers in Saudi Arabia, the oil-rich Emirates, Jordan and Morocco that the U.S. won’t abandon them as it did with President Mubarak. Nonetheless, he’s going to pay lip service to a need for reforms. At the same time, he’ll try to convince Israel that the happenings in the Arab world will ultimately play to its benefit, and that in any case, the U.S. will continue to be a guarantor of its security.

It’s hard to know at this stage whether the intended speech would also address the Israeli-Palestinian issue specifically, but in Washington some are suggesting that the president should definitely put emphasis on this subject. In order to balance the American veto in the Security Council, the speech has to contain a firm support of Palestinian aspirations along with criticism of Israel’s stances. If this is what’s going to be, it is clear that the Palestinians will entrench themselves even more in their uncompromising positions. And this way, the Palestinian matter, which till now hasn’t played a real part in the demonstrations in the squares of Cairo, Amman, Rabat and Sanaa, will be brought into the boiling turmoil for no reason.

Rewriting History

Jerusalem is aware of the possibilities in the speech, and it is acting with greater vigor in order to prevent unwanted and unhelpful American expressions and developments. The accelerated diplomatic activity that took place recently between Israeli and American representatives in Jerusalem, and the ideas brought up by the two sides — they are testimony to that awareness.

The previous Cairo address comprised, remember, quite a few statements that could have been interpreted as an attempt at rewriting history. Especially grating were sentences about the values seemingly shared historically between America and the Arab world. Are we going to see similar pieces in the follow-up speech, too?

Should we examine some of the American statements on the Middle East matters over the past days — it’s impossible to entertain this possibility with equanimity. There are American “experts” talking about the Muslim Brotherhood movement in terms of “moderates” and “extremists.” (Remember “political” Hamas and terrorist Hamas?) In an internal report submitted to Obama a few weeks ago, it was said, for example, that there exists a fundamental difference between the goals of al-Qaida and those of the Muslim Brotherhood regarding the global jihad, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, America, democracy and more.

Really? The difference is tactical at best, and certainly indicates that the Muslim Brotherhood movement is a body from which you could expect to engender a rather democratic and liberal breakthrough. Meanwhile, Washington is blessed in that it’s not an external factor like al-Qaida that led the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and anyplace else but “local” forces instead. However, if these “local” cells are leaning on the Brotherhood or on Iran, it’s unclear whether the curse is not greater than the blessing.