Obama Goes on "the Second Round"

In announcing [on April 4] his official entry into the U.S. presidential pre-election race 2012, President Obama stressed that now it’s time to stand up for protection and further development of the “progress we’ve made — and make more.” Another matter is that, according to his admission, a new 20-month pre-election marathon promises to be rather complicated, compared to the history-making campaign three years ago that made a young African-American politician an embodiment of hopes for positive change in the life of the country and won him, in spite of prognoses of great number of skeptics, a presidential seat.

Notably, on the day of announcement of the re-election campaign’s launch, Obama didn’t show himself to the public. The news spread at 5 a.m. and reached supporters of the American leader, known for his predilection for modern information technologies, via email.

The video, titled “It begins with us,” was followed up by a message from Mr. Obama — though he wasn’t the one on the video. The video features people whose support he relies on, the constituency of one of the key states in the country. Among them was a young “Michael from New York,” who said that he couldn’t vote in 2008 due to the age limit but was already inspired with Obama’s “energy and hope” and was getting ready “to help re-elect him.” And now, the time has come to put ideas into practice.

Naturally, this image, as well as the whole schedule of public presentation of the new Obama campaign, was carefully planned by his political analysts. The most important ones are well known to the public. They are David Plouffe and David Axelrod, makers of the 2008 victory. The former is now working at the White House; the latter has moved back to his native Chicago to concentrate entirely on the forthcoming political battles. But Axelrod is not going to officially run President Obama’s re-election campaign. Jim Messina, a former “right-hand man” of Mr. Plouffe, is the one chosen to do that.

In accordance with the U.S. political traditions and norms, the pre-election headquarters will be based in Chicago, the homeland of the presidential candidate. No doubt it will be under the close supervision of Mr. Obama himself and his closest aides. By law, the pre-election campaign team have to be completely separated organizationally, and especially financially, from the current administration. In fact, the current position of the American leader doesn’t allow him to devote himself entirely to the political fight. Addressing his supporters during a conference call, he said: “I’m going to need you even more this time than last time. I’m really going to need your help. I can’t spend 24 hours a day campaigning like I did in ’07 and ’08.”

Of course, the commander-in-chief of the American “Army of Change” tried to encourage his “troops” as much as he could. He recounted political victories achieved, from preventing the economic collapse during the recent crisis to withdrawal of the troops from Iraq, from the health care reform to the repeal of the old ban on the open service for sexual minorities in the U.S. armed forces. He called for aggressive action in political debates, without stops to find excuses. He stressed that he had to finish what he had begun and warned about a possible reversal of his policies if Republicans gain revenge. Political analysts and the U.S. press come to conclusions based on the assumption that all these points will form the basis for Obama’s pre-election campaign.

But even his optimism seemed a bit strained. “We may not have the exact same newness that we had in 2008,” he said. “Look, over the last two years, I have aged a little bit, I’ve got gray hair, got bags under my eyes now, you know, some of that youthful appeal may be faded a little bit.” Judge for yourself: What do these words have more, an uncompromising will or weariness?

A virtual meeting with hundreds of organizers and Obama campaign activists was arranged by the White House late in the evening of the same long day on Monday. That day had also included a formal filing of the papers with the Federal Election Commission and a meeting with the key campaign donors.

Public speaking was intentionally not provided for. The White House tried carefully to create an impression that the president never gets distracted from state issues for the sake of his own interests. Indeed, it didn’t save him from being criticized. “I find it kind of ironic that the week we are trying to engage the president, the Democrats and the country with an honest debate about our budget with real solutions to fix this country’s problems and prevent a debt crisis, the president’s launching his re-election campaign,” said Paul Ryan, a U.S. congressman, on behalf of Republicans.

Indeed, America has been living without a federal budget for more than six months (a fiscal year in the U.S. begins on October 1). If the governing party fails to reach an agreement with the opposition party, it may become, in the coming days, the first government shutdown since 1995. The U.S. national debt threatens to hit the “ceiling,” set at an astronomical height of $14.3 trillion, by mid-May this year. Mr. Obama claims that if not for his team’s efforts, it could have been even worse…

In fact, the time chosen to launch the new campaign is quite traditional. Around the same time, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton launched their campaigns to be re-elected for “the second term.” And if the start of the current leader seems to be a little early, it is mostly because his opponents are lingering. No Republican has yet officially announced their intention to enter the presidential race. Only one person, Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, has formed a so-called “exploratory committee.”

The “administrative resource” of the incumbent is still strong in America. Presumably, potential rivals of Mr. Obama are yet afraid to take the distance headlong. But for all that, they are constantly scouring in states traditionally recognized as key “start” states like Iowa and hoarding organizational and financial strengths for the race. Therefore, the White House is not that wrong in claiming that, in fact, Mr. Obama is not the first to begin to do the same thing as they do.

The organizers of his campaign make no secret that their goal is to start the fund-raising as soon as possible. The ultimate goal, in this case, is a fantastic figure — up to $1 billion (compared to $750 billion in 2008). They intend to draw $500 billion by their own efforts. The same amount of money has been asked to be raised by so-called campaign “bundlers,” or experts of financial “aerobatics,” who would be able to bring up to $350,000 each into the campaign fund. Campaign finance laws limit gifts to $2,500 per individual donor.

Be that as it may, Mr. Obama will have to hold the first fund-raising event of the new qualifying round on April 14, in Chicago. By the way, the schedule of his regular trips around the country will now be the subject to his electoral considerations. This week, for example, he makes speeches in Philadelphia and Minneapolis, the largest cities of the two key states.

He can’t afford, under the current circumstances, to waste time on the buildup. “The good news is that he’s close to 50 percent, no opposition in the primaries, he can raise an unlimited amount of money, his base is pretty solid. The bad news is independents have gotten away from him, the economic climate we are facing is pretty grim and we are fighting three wars,” said Doug Schoen, a Democratic pollster, formerly one of the top advisors to Bill Clinton and supporter of Mr. Obama.

The latter, of course, is staggering. Mr. Obama, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, is forced again and again to explain to his fellow countrymen why America has to fight a war far from their shores. In Libya’s case, he referred to considerations of humanity. In response, for example, the owner of the “Stratfor” analytical firm, which positions itself as a “private CIA,” wrote biting comments in his “Immaculate Intervention: The Wars of Humanitarianism.” Dennis Kucinich, a lawmaker known for his anti-war views, addressed the U.S. Congress on War in Libya, asking whether there was anything humanitarian about a civil war in Libya that could “make all of Libya a graveyard.”

But still, as Bill Clinton used to say, even a fool can understand that the state of the economy is the most important thing for the election outcome in America. Charlie Cook is one of the local and most venerable political analysts. He recently issued the most specific and pithy, in my opinion, 2012 political predictions. He reckons that if the level of unemployment in the U.S. declines to around 8 percent, it would likely bode well for Obama’s re-election chances. If it remains around 9 percent, any major Republican nominee has a good chance of winning. Finally, if the figure remains between 8 and 9 percent, it is a tipping point.

By incessant efforts of Obama’s team the level of unemployment in the U.S. is declining slowly but steadily. According to the latest monthly report of the U.S. Labor Department, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 8.8 percent in March. It is the lowest figure for the last two years.