Obama’s Uphill Battle to Emulate Bill Clinton

Washington (AP) – U.S. President Barack Obama surprised all this week in announcing through the Internet, 20 months in advance, that he will be running for re-election and trying to repeat Bill Clinton’s feat. Clinton is the only member of the Democratic Party to win consecutive terms since World War II. But the current leader has a far more difficult task than his political guru, who played the saxophone and got into sex scandals.

Apparently, when Obama finally steps up to the platform for his famous speeches, he will find a very different climate than in 2008 during the so-called “Obamamania,” when 20,000 people gathered to see him speak in Germany during the election campaign.

For professor of international relations at ESPM-RJ, Andrea Ribeiro, there is no way to make a prognosis yet about a favorite. “The launch of the campaign seems to try to rescue the climate of hope and interaction with the public of 2008. The Republicans, however, chose not to launch pre-candidates and adopted the strategy to wait for Obama’s image to get worn off before the appearance of a strong opponent,” she says.

Obama faces criticism for the country’s participation in wars — Iraq, Afghanistan and now Libya. Besides, there is opposition to his reform to the American health care system. He has also found great difficulties in approving his proposed budget and fulfilling campaign promises, such as closing the prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.

The biggest thorn in his side, however, remains the economy, although unemployment and consumption rates have shown improvements in recent months.

Still, the difficulties in the economy are so annoying that once again, they are being used as ammunition by Republicans, as has happened in the congressional elections last year, taken by political opponents of Obama as proof that the American people have not been pleased by his administration.

In those elections, the Democrats lost their majorities in the House and Senate.

On the day of the announcement of Obama’s campaign, the Republicans launched an Internet video that contained criticisms to the current president. And a jab to his famous slogan: “Hope is not hiring.”

Without opponents or approval

Opinion polls indicated that Obama would beat any Republican name mentioned as a candidate, such as former vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and even the billionaire Donald Trump. But that does not mean the re-election is a shoo-in: only 41 percent of Americans believe he should be reelected in 2012, according to Quinnipiac University.

Half way through his first term, Bill Clinton, who led the country between 1993 and 2001, had approval ratings around 60 percent, while Obama’s at this time is hovering around 40 percent.

A consolation for the Democrats is the fact that George W. Bush also did not have a very high rating when he was re-elected (48 percent). And there is also a very important financial factor: The Obama campaign will raise up to one billion dollars, a record in American history. In the 2008 elections, when he had already made ​​history by interacting with voters, he accumulated approximately $750 million. It will not be for lack of money, then, that the Democrats will lose the elections next year.