Is the Obama Doctrine Applicable to Asia?

After President Obama gave a series of speeches against Libya, American academics and politicians began to explore the “Obama Doctrine.” Simply speaking, the Obama Doctrine means that the U.S. and the international community “have a responsibility to protect” people who are in danger of severe human rights violations. The English abbreviation of “responsibility to protect” is R2P. The Obama Doctrine is exactly what the U.S. and the international community implemented in Libya. The question is: What would happen if the Obama Doctrine were implemented in Asia?

Is Intervention Related to Cost?

So far, there is no massive genocide, like the one in Cambodia, occurring in Asia. While the Thai government has repressed the “Red Shirts,” the situation is mostly under control. It has been rumored that the Myanmar government quelled rebel forces, but the situation is still taking shape. North Korea is facing a succession crisis and any troubles incur forceful oppression. China has the strictest social control, but it nipped calls for a “Jasmine Revolution” in the bud.

From the content of the speech, the Obama Doctrine is a mixture of old and new foreign policy: 1) The U.S. will selectively continue in the position of world cop; 2) In order to reduce danger and casualties, the U.S. will not send its ground troops to areas of non-vital interest; 3) If the scale is limited and is supported by the international community, the U.S. will take military action to deal with humanitarian crises; 4) After consulting with its allies, the U.S. will take joint military action, launching the Marines and Air Force; 5) The U.S. supports its allies by playing the leading role or allowing the possibility of handing command over to them; 6) In global hot spots, the U.S. would have limited involvement, if costs are low.

Before the U.S. started the war in Libya, Samantha Power (of the Office of Multilateral Affairs and Human Rights at the National Security Council) insisted that the U.S. and the international community should not repeat mistakes made in Rwanda and the Balkan Peninsula, where military strongmen committed genocide. As a liberal intellectual, Ms. Power laid out her concept of anti-genocide in her book, “A Problem from Hell,” later arguing for Obama’s prevention of a Libyan massacre, which is quite commendable. However, if it were like Russia quelling the Chechens or China’s suppression in Tiananmen Square, the possibility of the Obama administration’s intervention would be slight. It is also doubtful that the Obama administration would condemn Beijing.

Nevertheless, if sovereignty claims by various countries or participation by China’s first aircraft carrier in the South China Sea Fleet were to create conflict, would the U.S send troops in a dispute over the Senkaku Islands or if China invaded Taiwan during a natural disaster or if reunification negotiations were postponed?

It is not possible for the U.S. to intervene in conflicts such as those in Chechnya or Tiananmen Square, not only because it is unable to gain support from allies and the United Nations but also because sending troops to Russia and China is not in America’s interests. However, it would be the complete opposite in the South China Sea, Senkaku Islands and Taiwan Strait.

First, although a large number of countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations economically rely on mainland China, their lack of agreement with China on South China Sea-related security issues has put them under the leadership of the United States. In 2010, Beijing’s firm position on claiming sovereignty of the South China Sea area caused Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia to stand with the United States.

Second, despite the fact that the conflict between Japan and China over the Senkaku Islands has not resulted in any military action, U.S-Japan joint military maneuvers have indicated that their target is China. Furthermore, North Korea’s sinking of the ROKS Cheonan and bombardment of Yeonpyeong forced Japan and South Korea closer to the U.S. militarily.

Third, although some scholars argue for abandoning Taiwan in order to improve relations with China and avoid possible nuclear war, once Taiwan becomes one of China’s military bases, the U.S, Japan, South Korea and many ASEAN countries will be more insecure.

Last, and most important, the U.S. “return to Asia” and “Obama Doctrine” foreign policies were both established by Obama and should go hand in hand.