The Usual Suspects

Much ink will flow over the next few days concerning the job swaps planned in Washington, Baghdad and Kabul. The media, military analysts and political commentators will all be trying to find out what will stay and what may go.

Actually, the chances that there may be any significant changes in the American version of war, espionage and diplomacy aren’t all that great. And especially not where the game of musical chairs is concerned in which Obama will be swapping out a couple of politicians and soldiers he inherited from George W. Bush with a couple of different politicians and soldiers who also served under George W. Bush.

The job swap, in which the CIA chief will become Secretary of Defense and the Commanding General overseeing the longest war in U.S. history will become the CIA chief, actually represents continuity. They are the same individuals who stand for the same policies.

There is an inertia in Washington that ensures that military matters will outlive elections, changing political majorities and new decades with no difficulty. This powerful military complex complicates any suggestion of change. “Change,” in the context promised by Obama, will be difficult.

What will shift is the future focus of the work done by the military and intelligence services. Whereas up to now — at least in Iraq and Afghanistan — the emphasis has been on military action, the future will bring counterinsurgency and intelligence resources to the foreground. U.S. troops have already been withdrawing from Iraq and they will begin doing so from Afghanistan this summer.

When parallels are drawn between these battlefield changes, it’s not coincidental that David Petraeus, the best soldier in Afghanistan (in America’s view), should become head of the intelligence service and that Leon Panetta should take over the Department of Defense.