America at the Turning Point

Obama was successful where Bush failed — and gets kudos even from Republicans who praise the president’s determination in the search for bin Laden. But Obama’s mission is far from over.

America seems transformed. Up until Sunday, Republican praise for Barack Obama seemed out of the question. Now they’re praising his determination in the search for bin Laden and his courage in risking an attack on his compound. People seem to know instinctively that America is now at a turning point. The attacks of 9/11 plunged an unprepared nation into a new phase of its foreign policy. The hunt for al-Qaida was preeminent for the next decade. The president wanted to shift focus to the financial crisis as the latest national threat, but the mindset remained: The terror threat determined America’s dealings with the rest of the world. Whether he wanted to or not, Obama was forced to step into Bush’s shoes and endure public doubt as to whether they might not be too big for him when it came to fighting terror.

Now he can toss those shoes into the corner. He succeeded where Bush failed.

The bin Laden chapter has been brought to a conclusion — but not because the threat of terrorism has been erased and Afghanistan has become a stable nation. The psychological impact is more important than the tangible consequences of any foreign policy situational analysis. The United States can now free itself from its manic fixation on al-Qaida. Finally, Obama has the opportunity to free America from the restraints of yesterday’s thinking and try out new strategies on the global political stage.

His administration up until now, especially in light of recent events, has been characterized by changes in the geopolitical situation occurring more quickly than they could be dealt with. Above all, the Arab world has been changing more rapidly than have America’s Arab policies. The Arab world and the United States now share the common knowledge that the fall of old ideas and power structures doesn’t automatically usher in a new era. It leads only to an opportunity to usher in that new era. Many concrete conditions remain unchanged, and new risks accompany the new options.

Take the examples of Afghanistan and Pakistan: NATO and the United States wanted, one way or another, to begin reducing troop strength there with the aim of gradually handing control back to the provinces. Bin Laden’s death now simplifies achieving that goal. Obama can now say, “Mission accomplished.” Little has changed in the security situation. Pakistan’s double-dealing has complicated things more than the West had previously thought. Does anyone believe that the Pakistani government and its intelligence service had no knowledge about bin Laden’s hideout? The situation remains explosive; only the trigger has gotten more sensitive.

Developments in Palestine, Egypt and Syria now represent a real challenge for U.S. and European Middle East policy. Many in the European Union think that the so-called reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas will help the negotiations because the Palestinians will soon be speaking with a unified voice. The view from the United States is the exact opposite: They feel a Fatah-Hamas coalition will impede progress in negotiations, at least as long as Hamas refuses to accept the ground rules that stipulate recognition of Israel and acceptance of all previous agreements. Strictly speaking, the United States must now end its financial support for the Palestinian Authority as demanded by Congress. And will a more democratic Egypt support the peace process, or will it permit new tunnels to Gaza for the smuggling of weapons? Is Syria more predictable if it stays a dictatorship than if it becomes a nation in tumult?

Obama is now wearing his own shoes, and they’re possibly a size larger than Bush’s were. In which direction will they take him and the rest of the world?