Bin Laden’s Death Will Not Have Much Influence on the Situation in Afghanistan

According to a report by Voice of China’s “Global Chinese Broadcasting Cooperation Network,” on May 1, United States president Barack Obama announced that the leader of al-Qaida, Osama bin Laden, had been shot and killed by U.S. troops. Ye Hailin, special observer for the Voice of China, made the following comments.

Host: Ever since the war in Afghanistan started, there have been numerous reports of bin Laden being killed in explosions. However, from the looks of the report given today by Obama, it seems that one would be hard-pressed to doubt this news, correct?

Ye Hailin: This seems to be accurate. We also know that the U.S. had waited a week in order to carefully reconfirm the validity of this news. If this announcement was made in error, then we could say that any attempts by Obama to seek re-election in 2012 end here. There certainly would be no allowance for such an error.

Host: Following the death of bin Laden, there is perhaps a lot of international public speculation regarding one point, which is what effect will this news have on the American people?

Ye Hailin: It would be correct to say that there will be a restoration of faith in the U.S. This will be very helpful, as it continues to play the role of leader among global leaders. Defeating bin Laden has continually been a dream of the United States military intelligence as a sign of victory in the war against terrorism. Now, at least Americans can say that the war on terrorism over the past 10 years has not been fought in vain. Bin Laden did not escape punishment.

From the perspective of combating terrorism, the death of bin Laden is certainly good news throughout the world. Not only is this a source of comfort for the victims of 9/11, but it will also shake things up for other terrorist organizations. However, there will also be two negative consequences: First, the organization that either bin Laden himself or the main individuals working with him directly controlled will seek revenge. Second, after this period of uncertainty, it’s unlikely that the resolve of terrorist groups in other areas will be completely lost just because of bin Laden’s death.

If al-Qaida was a well-run terrorist organization, then it would have tried to seize the opportunity to get the information of bin Laden’s death out before the Americans could confirm his death, thus making it impossible for the U.S. to have the opportunity to enjoy this victory. But from what we have seen, this did not happen. This means that there were not many people within al-Qaida who knew that bin Laden was being hidden in a compound in Islamabad and that news of his death could not be quickly broadcast through al-Qaida’s system of command. Bin Laden had already been separated from the organization’s system. This was done to maintain his safety, and it also weakened his ability to move about. At this point, he was mainly a symbol that has now been destroyed, while al-Qaida has yet to react. Up until now, this proves that al-Qaida’s ability to conduct activity is relatively limited. In order to resolve the problem of terrorism, the most important element is actually not the al-Qaida terrorists that were within bin Laden’s circle, but rather other branches of the al-Qaida organization throughout the world as well as armed militant groups like the Taliban.

Host: What effect do you think bin Laden’s death will have on Afghanistan and Pakistan?

Ye Hailin: Afghanistan’s position will remain unchanged. While the U.S. needed both bin Laden’s death and to depart from Afghanistan, its departure from Afghanistan did not depend on whether or not bin Laden was killed. Only now the resolve to depart from or remain in Afghanistan will be affected. Since the U.S. can declare that its primary military aims have been accomplished, it is even more willing to leave Afghanistan. For the Taliban, this is good news, especially since the Taliban and bin Laden had not cooperated closely for many years, and anti-American movements within Afghanistan have been carried out primarily by the Taliban. So for the Taliban, it would definitely be a good thing if the U.S. leaves the country. It would then have one less battlefield opponent to deal with during Karzai’s presidency, one which it is incapable of defeating.

For the near future, [the consequences of] bin Laden’s death will present a tremendous security challenge for Pakistan. The branches of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as tribal armed forces that sympathize with the Taliban will definitely retaliate. While the tribes do not have the ability to retaliate against the U.S., they can get revenge by attacking Pakistan. While this poses a threat to Pakistan’s security, in the long term, this is actually a positive thing. After all, by taking out bin Laden, a powerful symbol, and then going after terrorist cells, this becomes a local problem. This is advantageous for Pakistan by giving it a chance to focus its manpower and physical resources on resolving problems it has had with these tribes. This is also not propitious for Arab extremists that go to the tribal areas to participate in the so-called holy war and to create hardship for the Pakistani government. Localizing the war on terrorism is beneficial for Pakistan.

Ye Hailin is an expert on international issues for the China Academy of Social Sciences. In 2000, he graduated from Beijing University’s School of International Relations with a master’s degree in legal studies. From 2000 to 2004, he was an official for China’s central government. Between 2004 and 2006, he was the third secretary for the Chinese Embassy, and from February 2006 to the present, he has worked in the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He is currently the deputy chief of the political and social studies section of the Institute of Asia and Pacific Studies and the Chinese Academy of Social Science chief secretary for the Center of South Asia Studies (CASS). His current research is focused on South Asian politics and international relations, anti-terrorism and non-traditional security. His most representative academic publications include his monograph entitled “Understanding Pakistan” and his translation of “Space as a Strategic Asset.” He has published more than 70 academic articles.