Will the U.S. and China Rule Asia Jointly?

This year marks the 10th meeting of the Shangri-La Dialogue, which is held annually by a British think tank, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). It is not overtly linked to the government, but it receives the full support of the Singapore Ministry of Defense. The number of participating defense ministers and directors of intelligence departments increases every year, making it an important annual forum for security in the Asia-Pacific region.

The purpose of the conference is to discuss sensitive security issues either directly or indirectly in order to change hostility into friendship. It includes plenary sessions on special topics as well as off-the-record breakout group discussions; furthermore, IISS provides several meeting rooms so that defense ministers of two countries can have private meetings.

Unfortunately, for the past decade, China has consistently refused to send its defense minister to the forum. At first, China believed the forum was designed to be an Asian version of NATO, which would discuss how to contain China. Even though China participated in the forum, it did not allow senior officials to attend. At first, only academics attended, and later, the Foreign Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense sent delegates.

This gave Taiwanese officials an opportunity to participate. This is only natural; because of the Taiwan Strait Crisis, Taiwan should be invited to attend the forum. In the beginning, both the deputy secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council and the director general of the National Security Bureau participated and held bilateral talks with defense ministers of other countries.

However, in later years, China’s influence increased and Beijing posited that security was an issue of sovereignty; therefore, it was unwilling to let Taiwan send any official delegates to the forum. In order to increase the level and authority of delegates sent by China, IISS gradually pressured Taiwan to send less senior officials. During the last two summits, China sent senior delegate Lt. Gen. Ma Xiaotian, the deputy chief of staff of the Peoples Liberation Army, while Taiwan only sent scholars Ting Shufan and Liu Fukuo.

This year, China’s Minister of National Defense, Liang Guanglie, attended the forum. Thus, the forum is now more developed, and the forum can be used as a platform to discuss all kinds of regional security questions. Although there are a few forums similar to the Shangri-La Dialogue, such as the regional forum held by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) or forums where defense ministers of ASEAN and other [world] actors can meet, their scope is much smaller and they have not garnered as much attention.

However, China’s decision to participate fully represents the increase in China’s self-confidence. In the future, China will have the ability to set the agenda on security issues, as was seen during the handling of the South China Sea conflict.

Last year in July, when Vietnam hosted an ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi, Vietnam first criticized China for its actions in the South China Sea. Afterward, 10 countries consecutively echoed Vietnam’s position, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton emphasized that the United States had interests in the South China Sea. She even said that the United States was willing to intervene to help China and other Southeast Asian countries resolve their sovereignty disputes.

In 2002, China and the rest of the ASEAN countries signed the “Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea,” yet recently China has deployed more military strength in the area. For example, later this year, China will launch a newly renovated aircraft carrier. According to reports, it will be deployed in the South China navy fleet, which will simultaneously strengthen southern China’s naval strength and make other ASEAN countries nervous.

The Shangri-La Dialogue is a meeting attended by all the national defense ministers in the region; thus, it is the best opportunity for ASEAN countries to make appeals. This year, before the forum began, Vietnam and the Philippines expressed that they had conflicts with China over maritime borders and sovereignty. First, Vietnam complained that on May 26, three Chinese patrol vessels collided with an oil rig that was on assignment in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Moreover, they cut the oil rig’s wire-line cable. The Philippines then reported that China had already invaded Philippine’s territorial waters seven times and that Chinese ships were landing on contested island reefs and unloading construction materials. Furthermore, they even placed a sentry on the island, leading the Philippines to decide to file a formal complaint at the United Nations.

Vietnam and the Philippines are known for posturing and being petulant before summits of the Shangri-La Dialogue, but this time even the United States had many reservations. On May 31, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Kurt Campbell, said in his keynote speech that the U.S. will privately speak with every party, not encouraging any party to use force, but instead encouraging each party to resolve problems through negotiation. U.S. Pacific Commander Adm. Robert Willard, while talking about the South China Sea conflict, was even more direct: “The United States doesn’t take sides in a dispute.”

Campbell uttered words that sounded piercing to the ears of the ASEAN nations. According to Campbell, America has made a clear promise to China that it is willing to cooperate with China in the Asia-Pacific. Does this mean that since the Obama administration promised to reduce the national defense budget by up to $4 trillion over the next 12 years, America is already prepared to reduce its deployment in the Asia-Pacific? Has the United States abandoned its opposition to China and become a joint ruler with China in Asia?

This year, China has become more flexible with regards to the South China Sea issue. It is using negotiation tactics that can be divided into two major categories. First, with regard to the overlapping exclusive economic zones, this issue affects sovereignty and therefore should be negotiated by the parties involved in the South China Sea. Second, China says that the maritime regions are international waterways. Since it touches upon the right of passage for international ships and aircraft, China welcomed the United States’ and Japanese participation in negotiations.

Of course, America does not want to leave the impression with the ASEAN nations that Washington has already abandoned them; thus, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates reassured them that America will continue to sustain its security role with its Asian-Pacific alliances. Furthermore, the United States will maintain its military strength in Asia. Yet everyone noticed that Gates did not mention the threat of China’s military strength, which was a major departure from his speech at last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue.

This was actually the first of a string of high-level talks this year. The cooperative atmosphere started when Gates visited Beijing and continued when Chinese President Hu Jintao and the Chief of Staff Gen. Chen Bingde separately visited the United States. During the third round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which was expanded to include senior military officials, both sides agreed that they would set up bilateral consultative machinery in Asia with a scope that not only includes U.S.-Chinese relations but also touches upon the security of all of Asia.

On the first day of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the U.S. secretary of defense and his Chinese counterpart held a meeting. They both expressed that the military relationship between the U.S. and China was on the right track, and both avoided bringing up a recent hacker attack on Google’s email accounts by hackers in Jinan, which was a sensitive issue. But everyone knows, in a few months, the real test of the relationship between America and China will be whether or not America announces a sale of F-16 jets to Taiwan.