Worries Remain over Afghanistan’s Independence

President Obama has announced a plan for the withdrawal of American forces in Afghanistan. The withdrawal is expected to begin in July, and it aims to have 33,000 personnel back in the United States by the summer of 2012. It was a tough decision for the Obama administration, which faced an increasing need to reduce the operation cost while worries remain over security in Afghanistan.

100,000 U.S. military personnel are currently stationed in Afghanistan. The administration had strengthened the fight against terrorism by allocating 30,000 additional troops based on the strategic plan announced at the end of 2009. On the other hand, it made a promise to start the withdrawal in July.

The president emphasized that the increase in the number of personnel led to success in the extermination operations against terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida. Obama called the successful assassination of Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attack, a “victory.”

NATO had already decided to transfer complete control of security to Afghanistan by the end of 2014, and the U.S. withdrawal is part of this exit strategy.

Moreover, an anti-war atmosphere spread within the United States as public opinion suggested that the government should reduce the enormous military operation cost and allocate more to reducing the mounting debt and economic recovery. The expected accession of Leon Panetta, the current director of the CIA and an advocate for efficient security maintenance, to the position of Secretary of Defense also seems to help the withdrawal begin.

The future of Afghan stability remains of particular concern. Ideally, recovery and reconstruction of a nation should progress in accordance with its own discretion and responsibility. However, those supposed to be in charge of security enforcement, such as the national armed forces and police, are not being trained enough.

The Karzai administration’s governance capacity is also unconvincing as its corruption has often called attention to. Furthermore, its talks with anti-governmental forces such as the Taliban remain dubious. The influence of the Taliban has already spread to neighboring Pakistan, where bin Laden was in hiding; and that the assassination has raised anti-American sentiment is alarming.

Afghanistan is the breeding ground for international terrorist organizations and the most dangerous region in the world. The international community must continue to support the country as the United States starts the withdrawal. Assistance for former Taliban soldiers, such as vocational training and agricultural development, may be the key for Afghanistan’s independence. Japan must pay closer attention and think seriously of ways to contribute to stability in Afghanistan.