Greek Scenario in the U.S.? No Festive “Fourth of July”

Whenever Timothy Garton Ash goes to the U.S., he is struck by the conspicuous deterioration. He sees the shortcomings that a superpower inevitably collects. He fears that with the embedded political system of the country, improvement will not soon be realized.

Today the U.S. celebrates the anniversary of their independence. As we all know, it was 15 years ago that an alien invasion by an army of giant flying saucers was repulsed, thanks to the ingenuity, courage and heroism of American troops at the head of a global coalition. The American president, Thomas J. Whitmore, declared that from then on, July 4 would be celebrated as Independence Day not only in the U.S., but throughout the world. One commentator called his speech “the most bombastic, pompous speech that Hollywood has ever produced.” Which, given the competition, is no small feat.

“Independence Day,” the hit film from 1996, was also a period piece. The film takes us to a time when America, in the real world, seemed all-powerful and untouchable. A lot can change in 15 years. The mightiest army that the planet has ever known is fighting two major wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Neither has become a resounding victory. Iraq, which for years has dominated the American debate, has largely disappeared from the media. For the Americans, it is in the past.

Afghanistan is not. The suicide bombing at the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul last week showed that the country is still far from basic safety, as well as from liberal democracy. But despite the grumbling of his generals, Obama has declared that the troops shall withdraw according to the planned schedule. He says that America must focus on recovery at home. Most Americans seem to agree. According to a recent poll, 56 percent of Americans feel that the soldiers should leave Afghanistan as soon as possible. A blog compares Obama to another leader who, after 10 years of war in Afghanistan, gave up to focus on the economic and social reconstruction at home. It calls the U.S. president “Barack Gorbachev.”

But a comparison between the U.S. in 2011 and the Soviet Union in 1988 brings enormous differences to light. The U.S. is wrestling with its own version of the economic, social and political problems that accumulate when a country has been a superpower for a time.

The Real Superpower

Sometimes I think “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers,” the famous book by historian Paul Kennedy, appeared a quarter century too soon and chose the wrong emerging power. Published in 1987 shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of 10 years of stagnation in Japan, it was able to be dismissed by optimistic Americans as doomsday thinking. But imagine that it would appear this year and touch upon China as the new world power.

The U.S. exhibits some of the symptoms of strategic overload that Kennedy described. The costs of the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations after 9/11 are estimated at nearly four times the cost of World War II. Thanks to the enormous growth of the U.S. economy, they represent a much smaller share of the GDP: an estimated 1.2 percent in 2008, compared to 35.8 percent in 1945. But the armed conflicts around the world — first imposed by Osama bin Laden on the U.S., but then followed by the chosen war in Iraq — have absorbed a much greater percentage of the time, attention and energy of the Americans. Even as Washington tries to let others fight a conflict — as in Libya — it is pulled in as a sponsor.

The U.S. as a welfare state is creaking in its joints. In this respect, the differences between Europe and the U.S. are much smaller than most people think. According to Peter Orszag, a former budget director of the White House, the U.S. social security system will absorb nearly half of all U.S. government spending by 2015. The other half will focus on interest payments on the rapidly growing debt and for discretionary spending, and half of that will be spent on defense. For some individual states, like California, the future looks even bleaker.

Obama Is Not Superman

So government spending must be trimmed, but at the same time the country’s infrastructure — roads, railways (what railroads?), electrical grids, hospitals, schools — all show traces of long-term neglect. Every time I come to the U.S., I see the conspicuous deterioration. It is not just the potholes in the roads; it goes much deeper, like the failure of primary and secondary education. In the ranking of the OECD, the U.S. is in the middle. Only the American universities remain unequalled.

For these social problems, America needs firm political action across party lines. Most Americans agree. It’s what Obama in that brief, unforgettable new beginning of 2008/9 promised. He still has not been able to deliver, partly because of his own shortcomings, but also because you would need to be a superman to break through the polarized politics and blocked political system of the country. This applies to both Washington and to many individual states. A brilliant constitutional framework is reduced to a system that almost makes reform more difficult than revolution.

We know that phenomenon from history. Over the years superpowers collect shortcomings that they can tolerate because they are so rich and powerful — a bit like a super-strong athlete who does not need perfect techniques. But if your power decreases, you can no longer do without the techniques — and it may be too late to acquire them.

Both the European Union and the United States seem to be caught in a downward spiral. It was a Republican senator, not a Democrat, who I heard say last year: “This country is Greece, except that we have no European Union to save us.” It is clear that the Americans realize they are in a mess, and this is cause for hope. That they cannot agree on a solution is somewhat less encouraging.